Playoff Predictions

Here we are in mid September and it seems like we don't have quite the division races we'd all hope for. The only division that isn't seemingly locked up is the NL West. The two wild card races are close but in the AL it's really only a two-team race. Watching the NL West and the Wild Cards should be fun for the next couple of weeks. That said, let's get into some playoff predictions.

Assuming that the current divisional leaders don't pull a 2008 New York Mets, we'll assume that all of those divisions are locked up except for the NL West. Out there, I do like the current division leader, the Dodgers, but it's obviously not even close to locked up. They've got the right manager to keep them playing good baseball down the stretch, a left fielder that's clueless enough to not let the pressure get to him, and still a good lineup with some surprisingly good pitching. It does bother me that the Giants can't find a way to be in this discussion. When you've got two top of the line guys like Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, you really shouldn't be letting the Rockies relegate you to third position in your division. That said....

The Giants are going to make a run at this wild card. They're only 4 out and 9 of their remaining games come against the Diamondbacks (6) and the Padres (3). I don't know about you, but I'd love finishing my season with 6 games against those two teams. While the Rockies have 6 left against these two, they also have a 3 game set with the Cardinals and another set with the Dodgers to close out the season. And this is just scheduling stuff...I find it so hard to buy into a team that has JASON MARQUIS as its ace. This guy hasn't even been worthy of a playoff start on teams in the past, but all of the sudden he's the ace of a playoff contender? Hey, everyone has their moment. This Rockies team might end up being far too similar to that team of 2007. No one saw them coming and they ended up in the World Series. Dare I miss that boat again? I'll stick with them to hold onto the Wild Card.

Then we've got the AL Wild Card. Who would have thought that the Texas Rangers would find themselves in this position this late in the season playing a good portion of their games without Josh Hamilton? That lineup is deep and their pitching has been unbelievably good, at least relative to what they've been in the past. As a team, they rank 5th in the AL in ERA, 4th in BAA, 5th in OPS, 4th in saves, and 5th in WHIP. Not elite, but again, good enough to keep them in the playoff race. Who knows where they might be if Josh Hamilton had stayed healthy/not stayed out drinking with hot blondes? At the end of the day, the AL is just too deep and too good. In the NL, this team probably wins the West or at the very least the Wild Card. But in the AL? Simply not happening...the Red Sox appear to be down and they're still an 84-58 team. How often can a team go almost 30 games over .500 and not even be in a divisional race? Sorry, Texas...not this year.

Moving onto the actual playoffs...my NLCS matchup: Cardinals vs. Dodgers. I said I'm not missing the boat on the Rockies this time, but that just means to make the playoffs. I'll let other people take a team with Jason Marquis as their ace. But what about the Phillies you say? Hey I might be all for it just so I can see Pujols hit another 8,450,867 foot home-run off of Lidge. Teams don't win in October without a closer. Period. Especially not teams whose starting pitching is VERY mediocre. Picking the Phillies is kind of like the Lloyd Christmas and Mary Swanson love story. Sure, you met the Phillies last October, sparks flew, emotions ran high. They actually won the World Series, man. Then you come to this October. Turns out Mary is married and the Phillies aren't nearly the same team you saw last October. Cool, Phillies hit bombs. But they're not winning this October.

Back to the actual matchup, I'll take the Cardinals in 6. Wainwright, Carpenter, Pineiro...I love it. Pineiro might be the most untalked about great pitcher this year. No, not great for a career but in 2009 Joel Piniero is actually a great pitcher. His WHIP is up there with the best in the league and with a little more luck in terms of run support he might actually be in that Cy Young convo with Wainwright and Carpenter.

Over on the AL side, I'm looking forward to a New York-LA matchup. Boston might make a run at the ALCS, but they just don't have that "it" this year. They feel almost like they've gotten old, like the Yankees. And I know that's not necessarily true, but there's nothing special about that team. On the other hand, LA and New York have been ridiculous this year. When you're watching your ESPN ticker, don't be confused when it says MLB on the left and the score is New York 14 Los Angeles 10. ESPN didn't go haywire and accidentally start putting football scores into the MLB section--that legitimately might be the score of some games. I'll take the over in most games in this series.

Ultimately, the Yankees power past LA in 5. The Yanks just score too many runs and are too good. If they get good starting performances in all of the games, a sweep wouldn't surprise me. They've got a bullpen that's been surprisingly good between starters and Rivera and then Rivera is Rivera. Although who knows what can happen in that stadium...Angels might end up hitting a couple of popflys that get out and winning a couple of fluke games then bringing the series to LA and getting the thunder sticks and that stupid Rally Monkey going. Memo to Yankees: Take out the monkey. Bring back Bernie Williams. Maybe he can put it to sleep with some of his jazz music.

So a Cardinals vs. Yankees matchup. The two most traditionally successful franchises squaring off for the first time in the Fall Classic since '64. I actually don't think you could ask for a better Series this year. Call me biased, but I'm taking the Cardinals in 7. With Matt Holliday the Cardinals lineup is explosive and their pitching should be able to temper the Yanks enough for Pujols and the rest of the crew to inflict some damage and win four ballgames. I thought about picking the Yankees because they really do look stacked this year but I couldn't. I'm not picking against Pujols. I think if I do, he might somehow someway find out that I did and invite me to his Hall of Fame acceptance speech and call me out in front of every reputable baseball player and mind alive. Hell clearly would be my fate. So I'm sticking with Pujols and the best pitching staff of 2009. And hey, they actually have a closer this year (or did until lately...it's a mirage, he's still great. I hope, I hope...)

Have we Overlooked Greatness?

As the 2009 season enters into its final month, many of us are coming to the realization that some of the greatest players of our generation are entering into their final years (Ken Griffey, Jr, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz) and some have possibly already put on the uniform for the last time (Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds). With all of these greats on the verge of retirement, we might be making the mistake of overlooking another great from our generation. Although he is only 32, the Andruw Jones of today is not the Andruw Jones we grew up with. Although he has had some success in very limited time with the Texas Rangers this year, it seems as though he is a complete afterthought in most baseball circles. Many might even have found it surprising when I mentioned that he is only 32, and with that being said, I would like to look at some of his accomplishments in the game of baseball before the age of 30, and assess his place among the all-time greats in that regard.

The first fact that I would like to bring to everyone’s attention is that Andruw Jones is far and away the greatest defensive Center Fielder of all-time. This is where I’m hoping to stir up the most debate, but throw out the name of any other Center Fielder that you feel worthy of discussion and he will not be able to compete with the defensive numbers that Andruw Jones has put up over his career.

The second point I would like to make is in regards to his overall play in center field over the course of his career, and even more so before the age of 30. As discussed in my article “Looking Beyond the Gold Gloves,” I would like to again bring up the statistics of Batting Runs Above Average and Fielding Runs Above Average. I would like to take the sum of these two categories to determine overall play as a center fielder. When doing this, it turns out that there are only 24 center fielders in the history of major league baseball that have a combined BRAA and FRAA over 300, meaning that they produced over 300 more runs at bat and in the field for their team than the average player would have had playing in the spot instead. Those 24 players are: Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Ken Griffey Jr, Jim Edmonds, Billy Hamilton, Jimmy Wynn, Bernie Williams, Caesar Cedeno, Andruw Jones, Richie Ashburn, Carlos Beltran, Al Oliver, Brett Butler, Duke Snider, Chet Lemon, Kirby Puckett, Andy Van Slyke, Erik Davis, Larry Doby, Kenny Lofton, and Johnny Damon. So maybe this is not the most exclusive of all lists, but it is only 24 players out of everyone who has ever played center field in the major leagues as a main position. However, if you add another element to this, the list becomes decently exclusive. Out of all the center fielders to ever play in the majors, here are the only players that have ever reached a combined BRAA and FRAA of over 300 before the age of 30: Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr, Joe DiMaggio, Andruw Jones, Caesar Cedeno, and Larry Doby. My main point is that Andruw Jones remains 1 of the only 9 players ever to accomplish this feat, and out of these nine, six out of the seven who are eligible for the hall of fame are in (Griffey will be sure to make seven out of eight soon).

Another interesting fact about Andruw Jones’ career before the age of 30 is the home run totals he put up year in and year out. In fact, the only active players to have more 30 home run seasons than Andruw Jones before the age of 30 are: Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols (Jones had 7 and the other 2 had 9). When we extend this beyond just active players, it turns out that the only players in the history of major league baseball to have more 30 home run seasons than Andruw Jones before the age of 30 are Arod, Pujols, Jimmie Foxx, and Eddie Mathews. I should note that Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, and Mel Ott all had seven 30 home run seasons before the age of 30, which ties them with Jones, but still, he once again finds himself in great company.

The final issue I would like to point out about Andruw Jones’ career pre-30 years old is that he was perhaps the best all-around player on a team that won the NL East every year from the time he entered the league at age 19 in 1996 until 2005 when he was 28. Although he just missed out on the Braves team that won the World Series in 1995, he still was a key part to 10 of the 14 consecutive division titles.

In the end, Andruw Jones will most likely not put up the same career numbers as some of the greatest players ever to play the game. He will not be remembered as one of the greatest players of our generation as well. Sustaining such a high level of play for many years is an integral part of a great career, but when it comes to making a huge impact at such a young age, it’s hard to find as many center fielders as great as Andruw Jones.

NL Cy Young

I've reached the point in the summer, actually I reached it about 4 weeks ago, where I find myself

losing my mind. It seems like half of the things I do at this point are mindless and I'm not even paying attention. I flip channels, I workout, I do whatever...and find myself with half an hour less of my life and not really sure what happened during that time. Hell, this morning the TV was on and next thing I realized I see Ellen DeGeneres two-stepping across my screen. What??! But then I realized things don't need to be quite this boring. That's why it's time for some good old-fashioned Cy Young debate. We'll leave the MVP argument alone for now and might for the whole season since it SHOULD be locked up already in both leagues (Pujols, Mauer). But for the Cy Young race, nothing is nearly as clear cut.

Let's look at the National League. At one point, we could've just said it's a two-on-two battle, Giants vs. Cardinals and we'll just give it to the two guys on that team. Matt Cain has faded slightly so that Giants/Cardinals 2 v 2 matchup won't occur, but it's safe to say that three out of those four are still battling. Unfortunately for Wainwright, it's highly unlikely he could convince voters that he's even the best pitcher on his own team let alone the best in the league. It's too bad for him but probably the truth. He's one of a handful of guys that I'd like to put out there in October but in that handful includes Chris Carpenter.

It seems like right now Lincecum is the front runner for the Cy Young because of pitching's equivalent to that sexy home run number--strikeouts. With his 222 total strikeouts and 10.3 K's/9 innings, it's hard to argue with just how dominant he can be. He was electric last year but then he went and got better, developing a changeup simply to ruin hitters' lives. But just because he might be improved from last year when he did win it doesn't make him a shoo-in for this year. It's not just about him, it's about the rest of the league, namely Chris Carpenter.

Carpenter is ahead of Lincecum in an overrated, but still important (and in Cy Young voters' minds seemingly far too important) category--wins. But it's not just wins that he leads him, it's ERA and WHIP, giving Carpenter an edge on Lincecum in 3 of the bigger pitching stats people pay attention to. And you know what? I think the guy deserves some credit for battling through injuries and coming back like they don't even matter. It's actually starting to seem like Carpenter is MLB's Jack Bauer. And this season is kind of like season 6. He got hurt, kind of like Bauer being released to the terrorists, but then when you're expecting the worst he comes out of nowhere, guns a' blazin', to lead the Cardinals to the playoffs. (By the way season 6 of 24 is an awful waste of anyone's time...Jack escapes terrorists, Jack yells at people, Jack kills terrorists, Jack saves country, country hates Jack, to be continued...seriously, save yourself the time).

Anyways, look to the guy that keeps guys off base better than any starting pitcher in the league (0.96 WHIP) and wins games at a better rate than anyone (.824 winning %) for your NL Cy Young. Lincecum does have some sexy looking numbers, but come October, I'll take Carp. (And by the way I'll go ahead and take his Cardinal team to represent the NL in the World Series. And who would've thought...I could've maybe even brought JOEL PINEIRO into this discussion! Don't laugh. I'm only kind of a Cardinals' rube)