Putting a grade on recent long term contracts

During this year’s major league baseball offseason, we have seen Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder sign two of the four largest contracts in baseball history. Pujols’ ten year, $254 million with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim puts him in second place all-time, with Alex Rodriguez being the only player in MLB history to have signed a larger deal, while Fielder’s nine year, $214 million with the Detroit Tigers is good for fourth all-time. At this point in time, there is no question that these two players are both in the top 5 when it comes to ranking 1B for the entire league, but the more pressing issue is if both of them will still be as highly regarded throughout the entirety of their new deals. Most players are worth what they sign for up front, but what becomes interesting is if the same can be said for them once their contract runs up, or if they maintain that status for a majority of their new contract. Below is a small analysis of some of the larger contracts that have been signed in recent year, and how the player fared throughout the duration of it (or up to this point of it) compared to his stats before.

Alex Rodriguez (Part 2): 10 years (2008 – 2017), $275M with the New York Yankees

After an impressive first four years in New York, the Yankees granted Rodriguez free agency and signed him for an additional ten more years, which started at age 32. It will be interesting to see how Rodriguez holds up for the last six years of this deal, as he has yet to play in more than 138 games starting in 2008 when he resigned. 2011 was the first time since 1997 that he did not have both a 30 HR and 100 RBI season, and his 2008 through 2011 BA of .284 and OBP of .375 are below his career marks of .302 and .386, while his SLG and OPS of .521 and .896 respectively are way off par in comparison to his impressive career marks in those categories of .567 and .953. The .284 / .375 / .521 stat line would be great for most, but not a guy who will earn $143M over the next six years, and only appeared in 99 games in 2011 at the age of 35. In the end, the Yankees jumped the gun on this one and did not consider the fact that he would be 41 when it was all said and done. Grade: B so far.

Alex Rodriguez (Part 1): 10 years (2001 – 2010), $252M with the Texas Rangers

In playing six full seasons with the Seattle Mariners through the 2000 season, Alex Rodriguez became a free agent going into his age 25 season. Although the Rangers themselves did not fair too well from 2001 to 2003, they got what they paid for, and the same went for the Yankees once he was traded to New York prior to the 2004 season. From 2001 to 2007 (prior to the Yankees resigning him to another 10 year deal), Rodriguez had a line of .304 / .400 / .591, while also leading the AL in HR five times (329 total from 2001 to 2007), and winning three AL MVP awards. This was the greatest free agent signing of all time, and set the bar for what player production in all other big-time deals should be compared to. Grade: A

Derek Jeter: 10 years (2001 – 2010), $189M with the New York Yankees

After leading New York to four World Series titles (1996, 1998-2000), the Yankees signed their team captain before he could ever reach the free agent market. Those ten years would see a very slight drop-off in Jeter’s production, as he went .310 / .380 / .445 from 2001 to 2010 in comparison to .322 / .394 / .468 in his first five full seasons (including a couple appearances in 1995). The Yankees got about what they should have expected to get out of Jeter for those 10 years, as his 2001 to 2010 slash stat line mentioned before is almost identical to the one for his career of .313 / .383 / .449. Grade: A-

Joe Mauer: 8 years (2011 – 2018), $184M with the Minnesota Twins

This is the ultimate catch 22s of all deals. Mauer’s worth at the time came from the fact that he was much more valuable than any other catcher in the league (3 AL Batting Titles and the slash stat triple crown in 2009), but with a significant history of injuries, it seems unlikely that Mauer could catch for the entirety of the deal, but at the same time, a position change eliminates the idea that he is much better in comparison to the rest at his position. Through 2010, he was a very impressive .327 / .407 / .481 while serving as a full time catcher, but drastically dropped to .287 / .360 / .368 in 2011 with only 3 HR all year as bilateral leg weakness and pneumonia limited him to only 82 games, while starting at catcher for only 47 of them. Grade: Too early to tell, but not a great start.

Mark Teixeira: 8 years (2009 – 2016), $180M with the New York Yankees

Teixeira arrived in the Bronx in 2009 with an impressive career OPS of .919 (.378 OBP and .541 SLG) and five straight years of at least 30 HR and 100 RBI with the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. In his first year with the Yankees, he lead the AL in HR, RBI, and Total Bases, and the Yankees went on to win their 27^th World Series. His consecutive 30 HR and 100 RBI stretch is now up to eight straight years, but his slash stat line in decreasing tremendously each year (2009: .292 / .383 / .565, 2010: .256 / .365 / .481, 2011: .248 / .341 / .494). With five years left, the Yankees hope that Teixeira’s notorious slow starts to each season is not a representation of year long production from here on out. Grade: B

Manny Ramirez: 8 years (2001 – 2008), $160M with the Boston Red Sox

After eight seasons and two World Series appearances with the Cleveland Indians, Manny Ramirez moved on in 2001 to the Boston Red Sox in his age 29 season. Say what you want about the controversial end that Ramirez would have with the Red Sox (he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in 2008), but at the same time recognize that this was the second best free agent signing in terms of a player changing teams in recent memory. Manny’s line in his thirties with the Red Sox actually slightly increased in all three categories from his time in Cleveland (.315 / .415 / .595 with Boston compared to .313 / .407 / .592 with Cleveland). He would also lead Boston to two World Series titles during his tenure, being named World Series MVP in 2004. Grade: A

Troy Tulowitzki: 10 years (2011 – 2020), $157.75M with the Colorado Rockies

Prior to the 2011 season, the Rockies pulled and move similar to that of the Yankees with Derek Jeter ten years prior. After his first full season under his deal, Tulowitzki had his first 30 HR and 100 RBI season while also having an OPS over .900 for the third straight year. The Rockies should expect to see the same reward in signing Tulo long term that the Yankees did in signing Jeter. They basically have the new generation’s version of Cal Ripken Jr., besides the fact that Tulo is an upgrade. Grade: Too early to tell. Good start so far.

Miguel Cabrera: 8 years (2008 – 2015), $152.3M with the Detroit Tigers

On December 4, 2007: The Florida Marlins traded Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. Maybe the whole Dontrelle Willis end of the trade did not quite work out for Detroit, but the Cabrera end of it will allow it to go down as one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. The Tigers then signed Cabrera long-term right away at age 25, and since arriving in Detroit, he has had four straight 30 HR and 100 RBI seasons, and has asserted himself as one of the top 3 hitters in the entire league over the past two years going .328 / .420 / .622 in 2010 and .344 / .448 / .586 in 2011. He has also been as durable as they come, playing at least 160 games in three out of the four years. Grade: A

Todd Helton: 11 years (2001 – 2011), $151.5M with the Colorado Rockies

In eight out of the eleven years of this initial deal, the most under-rated player of the past decade had an OBP over .400, good for .424 in the aggregate. His production dropped off to what would be expected as a player nears the end of his career (the Rockies gave him 11 years at the age of 27), but right before the injuries caught up to him, he was able to lead the Rockies to the first World Series appearance in franchise history. Grade: B+

Carl Crawford: 7 years (2011 – 2017), $142M with the Boston Red Sox

The only non-pitcher ever to get a deal over $100M that had never had a 20 HR season. Crawford should only be viewed as a SB guy, and his already low career OBP of .337 in 9 years with the Rays plummeted to .289 in his first year with the Red Sox. One has to imagine that career low of 18 SB since becoming a full-time player will become the norm for most of the next 6 years, as he will already be 30 years old in 2012. Grade: Too early to tell.

Alfonso Soriano: 8 years (2007 – 2014), $136M with the Chicago Cubs

The Cubs must have been so impressed by his 40 HR / 40 SB with Washington in 2006, that they overlooked his career OBP of .325. Since signing with the Cubs in 2007 at age 31, Soriano has not had a 20 SB season, and his OBP is down to .320 since his arrival on the Windy City’s North Side. Grade: C-

Vernon Wells: 7 years (2008 – 2014), $126M with the Toronto Blue Jays

Why this happened in the first place is the main question to address (.245 / .304 / .402) in 2007, but the Blue Jays quickly recovered by having the Angels take this contract off their hands. The Angels have recovered since then, but it may have been nice to have Mike Napoli for the 2011 season, instead of Wells’ line of .218 / .248 / .412. Grade: D

Based on the above, there seems to be less than a 50 / 50 split between whether or not the players could maintain the same amount of production that they had prior to the big contract. Based on just quick judgment, there does not seem to be any strong indication between whether age plays a huge factor in how a player turns out for his new team, if changing teams has anything to do with it, or if it’s really beneficial to lock a player up before they hit free agency. In the end, the only real consistent indication we have is to avoid players that have low career OBPs. Also, with the way the market works, remember that teams are paying for what the player had produced in the past (for the most part), and it is rare for them to get the same amount of value out of the player as they age towards the end of their career.

Rounding out the other $100M deals (before vs. after):

Jayson Werth: 7 years (2011 – 2017), $126M with the Washington Nationals

.272 / .367 / .481 vs. .232 / .330 / .389

Grade: Too early to tell

Jason Giambi: 7 years (2002 – 2008), $120M with the New York Yankees

.308 / .412 / .545 vs. .260 / .404 / .521

Grade: B

Matt Holliday: 7 years (2010 – 2016), $120M with the St. Louis Cardinals

.318 / .387 / .545 vs. .305 / .389 / .529

Grade: Too early to tell

Carlos Beltran: 7 years (2005 – 2011), $119M with the New York Mets

.284 / .353 / .490 vs. .282 / .369 / .503

Grade: B

Ken Griffey Jr: 9 years (2000 – 2008), $116.5M with the Cincinnati Reds

.299 / .380 / .569 vs. .269 / .361 / .510

Grade: C+/B-

Albert Pujols: 7 years (2004 – 2010), $100M with the St. Louis Cardinals

.334 / .412 / .613 vs. .330 / .432 / .630

Grade: A

Silver Lining Major Theme of Barry Larkin's HOF Election

In what was his 3rd time on the ballot, Barry Larkin received baseball's greatest honor on Monday by being elected the the Baseball Hall of Fame. He was the lone selection of the BBWAA for 2012, a precedent that will not set the tone for the next couple of years as some of the greatest players from the 1990s show up on the ballot starting next year. As the era of the 1980s has began to wrap up and take its final shape in terms of what players from that time were elected, we now move towards finding out how the most controversial era in baseball history will be viewed. Many baseball fans of my generation will wonder how many of the players that were solidified stars when we started watching baseball will end up representing our era when it is all set and done. However, the conversation about players who used performance enhancing drugs and those who should be in or who should not be in can wait for another day. For now, let's look at how it is shaping up so far.

Personally, I started watching baseball around 1992 and 1993, and one of my earliest memories was the strike shortened season of 1994. At that time, there were well-known established great players: Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, and Greg Maddux to name a few. There was also no question at the time that the best SS in the NL was Barry Larkin. As MLB Network so nicely pointed out yesterday, Larkin was way above any other SS of his time. During his career, he posted a stat line of .295/.371/.444, while the league average for SS in the same period was .256/.317/.361. Larkin not only stood out in his era, but he is also had the 10th best career of any SS of all-time. He was NL MVP in 1995, and one year later, became the first SS ever to have a 30 HR / 30 SB season. I can go on and on about Larkin's greatness on the field, but it is his class on and off the field that I would like to draw attention to. He a class act, a great leader, a captain of his hometown team, and something that is not typical these days: a guy who plays his entire career for the same organization. I am proud to say that Barry Larkin was one of the solidified great players of the game when I started watching baseball, and I am even happier that he is the beginning of great players from the era my friends and I grew up with to be elected to the Hall of Fame.

So for now, I am not going to focus on whether certain players should be included or not for whatever reasons, but instead look at what we have at the present moment: a great SS that we had the honor of growing up with to represent the 1990s in the Hall of Fame. Barry Larkin reminds us that even if everyone from our generation is not included, we will still be able to say that we grew up watching some of the best to ever play the game, and there will still be enough of them to represent what we remember from our youth: Greg Maddux, Ken Griffey Jr, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell.

Soon enough, guys who we were fortunate enough to see the entirety of their careers play out will be getting their call, starting with Pedro Martinez is 2015, and when it is all set and done, we will be able to take those that we looked up to growing up, and know that they represent the game just as well as any other era before them.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20050479&topic_id=7417714

An extensive analysis of Alan Trammell’s HOF worthiness

Alan Trammell played all 20 of his major league baseball seasons with the Detroit Tigers (1977-1996). In his time, he was a 6 time All-Star and a World Series MVP for the 1984 Detroit Tigers. Let’s look further into his stats to see if he is Hall of Fame worthy like Red great Barry Larkin.

According to baseball-reference, Alan Trammell ranks 101st in career WAR. This is a quality rank in itself, but we need to see how he ranks in comparison to his short stop counterparts. In fact, Trammell’s career WAR of 66.9 ranks him 11^th all-time among all SS to ever play the game. Barry Larkin is ranked 10^th at 68.9. Here is how the SS ahead of him stand in terms of the Hall of Fame:

1.) Honus Wagner HOF

2.) Alex Rodriguez – active

3.) George Davis – HOF

4.) Cal Ripken – HOF

5.)Robin Yount – HOF

6.) Bill Dahlen – No

7.)Arky Vaughan – HOF

8.) Derek Jeter – active

9.) Luke Appling – HOF

10.) Barry Larkin – HOF 2012

Surprisingly, here is a list of SS who rank next after Trammell in career WAR:

12.) Pee Wee Reese – HOF

13.) Bobby Wallace – HOF

14.) Ozzie Smith – HOF

15.) Ernie Banks – HOF

16.) Joe Cronin – HOF

So out of the top 16 SS in MLB history based on career WAR, 11 out of 16 are in the Hall of Fame, 2 are active, 1 will probably make it this year, one is not in, and one is Alan Trammell at number 11. Based on this, I’d say Alan Trammell is a Hall of Famer.

The next step is to look at him in comparison to what is actually in the Hall of Fame at SS. I like to use slash stats for this. Trammell’s line is .285/.352/.415. His batting average ties him at 10^th with Robin Yount among Hall of Fame SS (Larkin is tied for 7^th). His career OBP of .352 has him ranked 11^th among all Hall of Fame SS (Larkin is 8^th). His slugging of .415 ranks him tied for eighth (Larkin 6^th), and his OPS of .767 ranks him tied for 12^th out of 22 (Larkin 5^th) if he was a Hall of Famer himself (There are 21 SS in the Hall of Fame). In comparison to SS from his era in the Hall, he is ahead of Ripken in AVG and OBP, but .020 behind him in OPS. He is ahead of Robin Yount on OBP and tied with him in AVG, and only .005 behind him in OPS. He is ahead of Ozzie Smith in all 4 categories. Trammell also had a career dWAR of 7.5. Ripken’s was 17.6, Yount was -5.3, and Smith’s was 21.6. If you compare them head to head, you can make the argument that Trammell was a better SS overall for his career than Smith was, and Ozzie Smith was a first ballot hall of famer.

Here is a year by year WAR of Trammell in comparison to the other Hall of Fame SS of his time (Yount was playing CF by the end of the 1980s):

Year	Yount	Ripken	Smith	Trammell
1981	5.2	-0.7	0.3	3.1
1982	11.5	4.5	4	4.1
1983	7.5	8.3	3	5.7
1984	6.2	9.2	4.4	6.6
1985	1.7	6.1	5.7	2.2
1986	2.7	6.6	5.3	5.9
1987	3.6	3.1	7.1	8.4
1988	5.5	4.7	5.5	6
1989	5.7	6	6.3	3.1
1990	2.9	7	2.8	6.8
1991	1.2	11	4.7	3
1992	2.3	2.9	4.3	0.9
1993	2.6	3.4	2.5	4.4
	58.6	72.1	55.9	60.2

Trammell also had a great postseason career, and if Ozzie Smith is in the Hall of Fame, I don’t see why Trammell can’t be either.

In conclusion, Alan Trammell should be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame based on the fact that a lesser SS from the same era is already in (This scenario should not always grant automatic election, but as shown above, Trammell’s stats stack up well no matter how you look at them). Ozzie Smith is indeed the greatest defensive SS of all-time, and maybe Hall of Fame voters felt this was enough at the time to elect a 3^rd SS from the 1980s into the Hall in 2002. Hopefully soon they elect a 4^th, because it seems apparent that Alan Trammell is at least the 3^rd best SS from his era, and at the same time a better all around SS from that same era than another player already enshrined in Cooperstown.