What ever Happened to the Great RF?

Historically, RF has been the main position of some of the greatest players of all-time.  The list of great RF can rival that of any other position, and that goes not only for all-time, but also if you look at it on an era by era basis.  Although RFs have historically represented their position as well and sometimes even better than any other position, this is not the case as of late.  In my view, RF has gone from the home of some of the greatest players of all-time, to a position that has the least amount of great players in terms of hall of fame potential over the last 25 years.  My argument is demonstrated by looking at RF on a historical basis and then showing that there has not been a dominant RF over the last 25 to 30 years, while every other position has had great players over the same time frame.  Based on my standards, there is no overwhelming evidence of a RF from the last 25 to 30 years that is a lock for the hall of fame, discounting the one that has already been voted in (Tony Gwynn).

           

All the facts necessary are present when needing to prove that historically, RFs have great credentials:

        1.) In terms of position players, there have been more RFs elected to the Hall of Fame than any other position.

        2.) In terms of 5+ WAR seasons, RF has more players that have had 10 or more of them in their career than any other position (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson).

        3.) Dominant RFs were present in every era over the course of 50 straight years (based on 8+ WAR seasons): Babe Ruth (1920s and 1930s), Stan Musial (1940s), Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Al Kaline (1950s and 1960s), Roberto Clemente (1960s).

When closely examining the more recent eras, specifically looking at the credentials of players who primarily played RF over the course of the past 25 to 30 years, it is clear that RF has become the one position that lacks a clear-cut future hall of fame player.  That is not the case for any other position over that same time frame.  Here are the facts:

        1.) With the exception of C, RF is the least represented position since 1980 in terms of players having an 8+ WAR/pos season in a year where they primarily played RF.  There have only been 5 times since 1980 where a RF had a season of a WAR/pos of 8 or greater: Tony Gwynn (1987), Larry Walker (1997), Sammy Sosa (2001), Ichiro Suzuki (2004), and J.D. Drew (2004).  All remaining positions have had players reach the 8+ WAR/pos mark in a single season at least 9 different times in that same time frame.  8+ WAR/pos is significant because it signifies an MVP type season on baseball-reference.com’s scale.

        2.) Again with the exception of C, RF is the only position since 1980 that has not had a player have multiple 8+ WAR/pos seasons while playing that position.  All other positions have been home to players with multiple 8+ WAR/pos seasons over the course of their career in that time frame:

a.)    1B: Albert Pujols (6), Todd Helton (2)

b.)    2B: Chase Utley (2), Ben Zobrist (2)

c.)    3B: Wade Boggs (4), George Brett (2), Alex Rodriguez (2)

d.)    SS: Alex Rodriguez (6), Cal Ripken Jr (3)

e.)    LF: Barry Bonds (9), Rickey Henderson (3)

f.)     CF: Ken Griffey Jr (3)

        3.) When it comes to 6+ WAR/pos seasons, the leaders in terms of players who primarily played RF over the last 25 years are Tony Gwynn and Shawn Green, with three 6+ WAR/pos seasons.  All other positions besides C have at least one player that had four or more 6+ WAR/pos seasons:

a.)    1B: Albert Pujols (9), Jeff Bagwell (5), Todd Helton (5), Frank Thomas (4)

b.)    2B: Ryne Sandberg (5), Chase Utley (5)

c.)    3B: Wade Boggs (8), Chipper Jones (5)

d.)    SS: Alex Rodriguez (10), Cal Ripken (6), Nomar Garciaparra (5), Alan Trammell (4), Ozzie Smith (4)

e.)     LF: Barry Bonds (16), Rickey Henderson (9), Tim Raines (4)

f.)    CF: Ken Griffey Jr (6), Andruw Jones (5), Carlos Beltran (4)

When it comes down to it, I would propose that Tony Gwynn serve as the only RF of the past 25 to 30 years elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame until further evidence can be used to prove that one or two other players dominated that position over the same time frame.  Larry Walker, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, and Ichiro Suzuki all had very good careers as primary RFs, but none are able to separate themselves out from this group of six as the best RF of the 1990s and 2000s.  Here’s my take on each of them, and why I would not yet vote for any of them if I had a Hall of Fame vote at this point in time.  Remember that I use the standards that I deem important, and my opinion can be influenced to change with a valid argument against what I propose:

Larry Walker - Strengths: led the NL in WAR/pos in 1997 and was dominant in yearly OBP among his RF counterparts.  Off-setting weak point: Only had five 5+ WAR seasons in his career, which does not set him apart from his RF contemporaries.

Sammy Sosa – Strengths: 10.1 WAR/pos in 2001 was the first season a RF had a 10+ WAR/pos since Stan Musial did it in 1948.  Off-setting weakness: Besides 2001, 1998 was the only other season where he had a WAR/pos > 6.0.  This makes his peak short, and six 5+ WAR/pos seasons is not enough to off-set this short peak, as well as not enough to set him apart from the 5+ WAR/pos season by season totals of other RFs in his era. 

Gary Sheffield – Strength: 6 150 OPS+ seasons, which ties him with Vlad and Walker for most from a RF in the era.  Off-setting weakness: Only 4 seasons with a 5+ WAR/pos, and never had a single season WAR/pos > 6.6.

Vladimir Guerrero – See Larry Walker’s off-setting weak point.  Vlad also never had an 8+ WAR/pos season or led his respective league in WAR/pos for a season like Walker did.

Bobby Abreu – Strength: Most consistent “All-Star” level RF in the era in the sense that he had 7 5+ WAR/pos seasons, which was more than any other RF over the same period.  Off-setting weakness: similar to the 2^nd point made about Sheffield, as Abreu never enjoyed a WAR/pos season higher than 6.3.

Ichiro Suzuki – Strength: Led the AL in WAR/pos in 2004.  Off-setting weakness: On an overall basis, he is the same exact RF as Sammy Sosa in terms of 8+, 7+, 6+, and 5+ seasons over the course of their career (besides that Ichiro had 2 7+ WAR seasons to Sosa's 1), where then Sosa gets the edge offensively in my mind since he had 5 150 OPS+ seasons to Ichiro’s 0.  Sosa’s 10.1 WAR/pos season in 2001 did not lead the NL, but was higher than Ichiro’s WAR/pos that led the AL in 2004.  I will predict that Ichiro will be a first ballot hall of famer in real life, and will be the only one of the 6 from this list that makes it any time soon.  Keep in mind his first year in the MLB was his age 27 season.  If he had come over from Japan at an earlier age, we may have seen those quality WAR/pos seasons that in the end would have served to set him apart as the best overall RF of the last 25 to 30 years.

Sources: baseball-reference.com (WAR v2.1)