What ever Happened to the Great RF?

Historically, RF has been the main position of some of the greatest players of all-time.  The list of great RF can rival that of any other position, and that goes not only for all-time, but also if you look at it on an era by era basis.  Although RFs have historically represented their position as well and sometimes even better than any other position, this is not the case as of late.  In my view, RF has gone from the home of some of the greatest players of all-time, to a position that has the least amount of great players in terms of hall of fame potential over the last 25 years.  My argument is demonstrated by looking at RF on a historical basis and then showing that there has not been a dominant RF over the last 25 to 30 years, while every other position has had great players over the same time frame.  Based on my standards, there is no overwhelming evidence of a RF from the last 25 to 30 years that is a lock for the hall of fame, discounting the one that has already been voted in (Tony Gwynn).

           

All the facts necessary are present when needing to prove that historically, RFs have great credentials:

        1.) In terms of position players, there have been more RFs elected to the Hall of Fame than any other position.

        2.) In terms of 5+ WAR seasons, RF has more players that have had 10 or more of them in their career than any other position (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson).

        3.) Dominant RFs were present in every era over the course of 50 straight years (based on 8+ WAR seasons): Babe Ruth (1920s and 1930s), Stan Musial (1940s), Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Al Kaline (1950s and 1960s), Roberto Clemente (1960s).

When closely examining the more recent eras, specifically looking at the credentials of players who primarily played RF over the course of the past 25 to 30 years, it is clear that RF has become the one position that lacks a clear-cut future hall of fame player.  That is not the case for any other position over that same time frame.  Here are the facts:

        1.) With the exception of C, RF is the least represented position since 1980 in terms of players having an 8+ WAR/pos season in a year where they primarily played RF.  There have only been 5 times since 1980 where a RF had a season of a WAR/pos of 8 or greater: Tony Gwynn (1987), Larry Walker (1997), Sammy Sosa (2001), Ichiro Suzuki (2004), and J.D. Drew (2004).  All remaining positions have had players reach the 8+ WAR/pos mark in a single season at least 9 different times in that same time frame.  8+ WAR/pos is significant because it signifies an MVP type season on baseball-reference.com’s scale.

        2.) Again with the exception of C, RF is the only position since 1980 that has not had a player have multiple 8+ WAR/pos seasons while playing that position.  All other positions have been home to players with multiple 8+ WAR/pos seasons over the course of their career in that time frame:

a.)    1B: Albert Pujols (6), Todd Helton (2)

b.)    2B: Chase Utley (2), Ben Zobrist (2)

c.)    3B: Wade Boggs (4), George Brett (2), Alex Rodriguez (2)

d.)    SS: Alex Rodriguez (6), Cal Ripken Jr (3)

e.)    LF: Barry Bonds (9), Rickey Henderson (3)

f.)     CF: Ken Griffey Jr (3)

        3.) When it comes to 6+ WAR/pos seasons, the leaders in terms of players who primarily played RF over the last 25 years are Tony Gwynn and Shawn Green, with three 6+ WAR/pos seasons.  All other positions besides C have at least one player that had four or more 6+ WAR/pos seasons:

a.)    1B: Albert Pujols (9), Jeff Bagwell (5), Todd Helton (5), Frank Thomas (4)

b.)    2B: Ryne Sandberg (5), Chase Utley (5)

c.)    3B: Wade Boggs (8), Chipper Jones (5)

d.)    SS: Alex Rodriguez (10), Cal Ripken (6), Nomar Garciaparra (5), Alan Trammell (4), Ozzie Smith (4)

e.)     LF: Barry Bonds (16), Rickey Henderson (9), Tim Raines (4)

f.)    CF: Ken Griffey Jr (6), Andruw Jones (5), Carlos Beltran (4)

When it comes down to it, I would propose that Tony Gwynn serve as the only RF of the past 25 to 30 years elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame until further evidence can be used to prove that one or two other players dominated that position over the same time frame.  Larry Walker, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, and Ichiro Suzuki all had very good careers as primary RFs, but none are able to separate themselves out from this group of six as the best RF of the 1990s and 2000s.  Here’s my take on each of them, and why I would not yet vote for any of them if I had a Hall of Fame vote at this point in time.  Remember that I use the standards that I deem important, and my opinion can be influenced to change with a valid argument against what I propose:

Larry Walker - Strengths: led the NL in WAR/pos in 1997 and was dominant in yearly OBP among his RF counterparts.  Off-setting weak point: Only had five 5+ WAR seasons in his career, which does not set him apart from his RF contemporaries.

Sammy Sosa – Strengths: 10.1 WAR/pos in 2001 was the first season a RF had a 10+ WAR/pos since Stan Musial did it in 1948.  Off-setting weakness: Besides 2001, 1998 was the only other season where he had a WAR/pos > 6.0.  This makes his peak short, and six 5+ WAR/pos seasons is not enough to off-set this short peak, as well as not enough to set him apart from the 5+ WAR/pos season by season totals of other RFs in his era. 

Gary Sheffield – Strength: 6 150 OPS+ seasons, which ties him with Vlad and Walker for most from a RF in the era.  Off-setting weakness: Only 4 seasons with a 5+ WAR/pos, and never had a single season WAR/pos > 6.6.

Vladimir Guerrero – See Larry Walker’s off-setting weak point.  Vlad also never had an 8+ WAR/pos season or led his respective league in WAR/pos for a season like Walker did.

Bobby Abreu – Strength: Most consistent “All-Star” level RF in the era in the sense that he had 7 5+ WAR/pos seasons, which was more than any other RF over the same period.  Off-setting weakness: similar to the 2^nd point made about Sheffield, as Abreu never enjoyed a WAR/pos season higher than 6.3.

Ichiro Suzuki – Strength: Led the AL in WAR/pos in 2004.  Off-setting weakness: On an overall basis, he is the same exact RF as Sammy Sosa in terms of 8+, 7+, 6+, and 5+ seasons over the course of their career (besides that Ichiro had 2 7+ WAR seasons to Sosa's 1), where then Sosa gets the edge offensively in my mind since he had 5 150 OPS+ seasons to Ichiro’s 0.  Sosa’s 10.1 WAR/pos season in 2001 did not lead the NL, but was higher than Ichiro’s WAR/pos that led the AL in 2004.  I will predict that Ichiro will be a first ballot hall of famer in real life, and will be the only one of the 6 from this list that makes it any time soon.  Keep in mind his first year in the MLB was his age 27 season.  If he had come over from Japan at an earlier age, we may have seen those quality WAR/pos seasons that in the end would have served to set him apart as the best overall RF of the last 25 to 30 years.

Sources: baseball-reference.com (WAR v2.1)

2012 AL MVP Debate

 

Using baseball-reference.com as a source for single season WAR Position Players, which the site defines as: “A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. Scale: 8+ MVP Quality, 5+ All-Star Quality, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Reserve, < 0 Replacement Level Developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com,” I would like to make my claim as to why Mike Trout should hands down win the AL MVP over Miguel Cabrera:

1  1.)    Mike Trout’s WAR as a position player this year was 10.7, while Miguel Cabrera’s was 6.9.  This signifies that as an all-around player, Trout contributed 3.8 more wins to the Angels than Cabrera did for the Tigers.  Trout also appeared in 22 less games than Cabrera this year.

2  2.)    Trout’s WAR of 10.7 for the 2012 season ranks him tied for 20^th all-time in terms of single season WAR for position players (In other words, Mike Trout had one of the top 25 all-around seasons for a position player in MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL HISTORY).  Cabrera’s year of a 6.9 WAR puts him tied for 496^th place in terms of a single season.

3  3.)    Counting Mike Trout, only 20 position players in the history of Major League Baseball have ever had a season with an overall WAR of 10.0 or higher: Babe Ruth (8 times), Willie Mays (6), Rogers Hornsby (5), Barry Bonds (3), Mickey Mantle (3), Ted Williams (3), Ty Cobb (3), Carl Yastrzemski (2), Honus Wagner (2), Lou Gehrig (2), Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken, Eddie Collins, Jimmie Foxx, Joe Morgan, Lou Boudreau, Robin Yount, Sammy Sosa, Stan Musial, and Mike Trout.  The 16 players on this list that are eligible for the Hall of Fame are all in the Hall of Fame, easily.

4  4.)    Based on the list of players in fact 3, the only other active position player to ever have a season with a WAR above 10.0 besides Mike Trout in 2012 was Alex Rodriguez in 2000.

5  5.)    Since RBI became an official stat in 1920, 10 players have won the Triple Crown: Rogers Hornsby (1922 and 1925), Chuck Klein (1933), Jimmie Foxx (1933), Lou Gehrig (1934), Joe Medwick (1937), Ted Williams (1942 and 1947), Mickey Mantle (1956), Frank Robinson (1966), Carl Yastrzemski (1967), and Miguel Cabrera (2012).  Miguel Cabrera is the only Triple Crown winner on this list to not lead his league in position player WAR the year he won the Triple Crown.

6  6.)    Miguel Cabrera would not have led the NL in WAR this year as well, since his 6.9 would have fallen short of Buster Posey’s NL leading position player WAR of 7.2.  Pretend Mike Trout never played in 2012, and Miguel Cabrera is still not the AL leader.  Your AL leader in WAR is now Robinson Cano at 8.2.

7  7.)    The American League has been around since 1901, and in that span, Miguel Cabrera’s 2012 position player WAR of 6.9 would have only led the AL 11 different seasons (1902, 1918, 1925, 1940, 1950, 1952, 1959, 1962, 1981, 1992 and 2006 and would have tied for the league lead in 1905).  Trout’s 10.7 would have tied for or led the AL in all but 11 AL seasons ever.

8  8.)    Miguel Cabrera did not even lead his own team in WAR (Verlander).

9  9.)    In fact, 8 different active 3B have combined for 13 seasons with a position player WAR higher than Cabrera’s 2012 total: Adrian Beltre (2004 and 2010), Alex Rodriguez (2004, 2005 and 2007), Scott Rolen (2004), David Wright (2007), Evan Longoria (2010 and 2011), Chone Figgins (2009), Chipper Jones (2007 and 2008), and Ryan Zimmerman (2009).  The only CF in the HISTORY OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL to have a season with a WAR higher than Trout’s 2012 total were Ty Cobb (1917), Mickey Mantle (1956 and 1957), and Willie Mays (1965).

1  10.)                        Jayson Stark of ESPN shed some light on this issue a couple days ago.  I need to acknowledge a great article on his part:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8450155/mike-trout-buster-posey-rest-2012-award-winners-mlb

Overall, both players had memorable seasons for different reasons, but what Trout did over the course of the 2012 season is more MVP worthy than what any other active player has ever done over the course of a season.

Source: WAR v2.1 by baseball-reference.com

The Importance of Context

The 2012 Hall of Fame ballot was one of the weaker ones in terms of players who were making their first appearance on it. This was reflected in voting results as well, with Bernie Williams being the only guy in his first year of eligibility gaining more than 5.0% to remain on the ballot for next year. Despite only receiving 9.6% of votes, Bernie Williams still serves as one of the more compelling arguments towards Hall of Fame election if you look at his stats in the context of which he put them up. By looking closer at Williams’ career, a more interesting way to evaluate a player’s stats towards Hall of Fame election comes to the forefront, and it is a much more relevant way to judge a player rather than simple career totals.

Playing his whole career for the Yankees from 1991 to 2006, it is fair to say that Bernie Williams was one of the top 3 CF of that time period, with Ken Griffey Jr. and Jim Edmonds being the other two. One can wrongly look at career totals, and quickly judge Griffey and Edmonds to be better CFs, but if you correctly look on a year by year basis, you can make a case that Williams may have been the best of the 3 offensively for a period of time. Take the 10 year time frame of 1994 through 2003 for example:

Ken Griffey Jr: 847 R (5 100+), 349 HR (6 40+), 931 RBI (5 100+)

Jim Edmonds: 868 R (3 100+), 260 HR (4 30+), 794 RBI (3 100+)

Bernie Williams: 994 R (7 100+), 221 HR (1 of 30), 934 RBI (5 100+)

Looking further into more meaningful numbers over that period:

Griffey: .288 AVG / .381 OBP / .588 SLG

Edmonds: .294 AVG / .381 OBP / .535 SLG

Williams: .314 AVG / .401 OBP / .515 SLG

In fact, from 1994 to 2003, Bernie Williams became the first CF to have a BA over .300, an OBP over .400, and a SLG over .500 for a 10 year period since Mickey Mantle. It is also important to note that Williams led all American League CF in OBP 7 times over that period, with Mantle (10), Ty Cobb (8), and Tris Speaker (8) being the only CFs in American League history to accomplish that more times in a career (The NL record for CF is Willie Mays with 7). Edmonds led the NL CFs in OBP 4 times in his career, and Griffey did the same for CFs in the AL 3 times.

The most important thing to consider within this context is how often each of the 3 players played at an All-Star level in terms of WAR and oWAR over this designated period. Using this as an evaluation, all 3 players indeed had a great 10 year stretch, with Griffey having a 5.0+ WAR and 5.0+ oWAR 5 times, Edmonds 5 times for WAR and 4 times for oWAR, and Williams 5 and 6 times respectively. In the end, Griffey and Edmonds were better all-around CFs for the entirety of their careers, with Griffey already having 3 5.0+ WAR seasons prior to this stretch, and Edmonds having 2 more 5.0+ WAR seasons after 2003. The 5 seasons Williams enjoyed of a 5.0+ WAR during this stretch were the only ones in his career, but still serve to show that he was an impressive player when compared to other greats at his position in his era.

Williams will be hurt by his defense in the end. His dWAR over the period of 1994-2003 was -8.3, while Griffey and Edmonds had dWARs of 4.3 and 6.3 respectively, as both were good defensive CFs over that period. With this, it will be interesting to see how much poor defense can hurt a player’s chances at Hall of Fame election, while so far, we have only seen great defense benefit some guys chances (Ozzie Smith (true) and supposedly Bill Mazeroski).

Another interesting variable that Bernie Williams brings to the table is how much playoff production can benefit a player’s hall of fame chances. During the 10 years of his career that were mentioned earlier, the Yankees were in the playoffs for 9 of them, winning 4 World Series. Williams also arguably slightly outperformed Derek Jeter over that period, going .278 / .386 / .483 to Jeter’s .314 / .385 / .465. Playoff performance should be very highly thought of, but it’s hard to determine in what way and to what extent. It is not out of the question though that Williams is one of the best CFs in the postseason in recent memory.

In the end, it will be interesting to see how Bernie Williams is viewed in future Hall of Fame elections. He is one of the more compelling candidates to ever appear on the ballot, and if anything, is much more of a possible Hall of Fame candidate than the initial 9.6% suggests.

More to it than a Career Total

At the conclusion of the 2011 season, Paul Konerko had hit 396 home runs in his career. Throughout the course of getting to that career total, Konerko has had seven seasons in which he has hit 30 or more home runs, with two of those seasons being ones where he had 40+. In 2012, Paul Konerko will be in his age 36 season, and coming off of two consecutive seasons of 30+ in 2010 and 2011, it is not out of the possibility that Paul Konerko will be hitting his 500^th career home run within the next couple of years. With 500 home runs once meaning automatic election to the hall of fame, it will be interesting to see how Konerko is viewed when his time on the ballot comes. In the end, it is important that voters look away from career totals from here on out since 500 home runs does not carry the same significance that it once did because of its common prevalence with today’s players, the fact that 500 home runs does not mean that the player was great in his era, and the fact that 500 home runs does not even signify a career that ranks among the all-time best.

On September 6, 1996, Eddie Murray hit his 500^th career home run, becoming the 15^th player ever to do so, and first to do so since Mike Schmidt did it in 1987. Murray retired in 1997 (Paul Konerko’s first year), and at that point, the 500 home run club looked like this:

1.) Hank Aaron 755

2.) Babe Ruth 714

3.) Willie Mays 660

4.) Frank Robinson 586

5.) Harmon Killebrew 573

6.) Reggie Jackson 563

7.) Mike Schmidt 548

8.) Mickey Mantle 536

9.) Jimmie Foxx 534

10.) Ted Williams and Willie McCovey 521

12.) Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks 512

14.) Mel Ott 511

15.) Eddie Murray 504

Since 1997, the 500 home run club has grown to 25 members, with Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, and Gary Sheffield all reaching that mark. Although 500 home runs is still an exclusive amount for a career (obviously since only 25 guys have accomplished that feat), it has become increasingly more common, and does not carry near the same weight that it once did.

With it becoming more common for players to reach 500 home runs in their career, it is important to point out that guys are doing it without really standing out compared to the rest of their era. The stat that will be used to judge how well a player is standing out offensively in his era is offensive WAR, where baseball reference says that a single season WAR of 5.0 and above is considered an All-Star season. When it comes to Hall of Fame induction, it is very important that a player stands out in his era with All-Star numbers, and to judge if they did that offensively, year-by-year oWAR can be used. In the end, career totals alone do not show how well a player stood out in his era. Take the example between player A and player B:

Player A retired with 1,663 runs, 3,020 hits, 585 2B, 569 HR, and 1,835 RBI in 20 MLB seasons.

Player B retired with 1,139 R, 2,239 H, 500 2B, 255 HR, and 1,230 RBI in 17 seasons.

Based on these career numbers, Player A accumulated a lot of impressive career totals, all of which were higher than Player B’s. However, Player A only had two seasons where he had an oWAR above 5.0, but Player B had three seasons with an oWAR above 5.0, meaning that Player A stood out less often in the era than Player B did, and neither make the cut of how often a player should stand out in their era offensively to eventually earn Hall of Fame election. Player A is Rafael Palmeiro and Player B is John Olerud.

Another factor that has come with the increase in players who have 500 career home runs is the fact that reaching that point does not necessarily mean that the player had a great offensive career. When Eddie Murray became the 15^th member of the 500 home run club back in 1996, all 15 members had a career oWAR that ranked in the top 100 all-time according to Baseball Reference. Since then, players who are reaching the 500 home run mark are not having careers that set themselves apart from other players from their era that had much lesser career totals in home runs. Take another Player A vs Player B example for instance:

Player A hit 609 home runs in his career, and accumulated a career oWAR of 49.8, ranking him tied for 151^st all-time on baseball reference’s career oWAR leader board.

Player B hit 287 home runs in his career, and accumulated a career oWAR of 50.0, ranking him 148^th all-time on baseball reference’s career oWAR leader board.

Based on this, Player B finished his career with a slightly higher career oWAR in three fewer seasons, and you can conclude that this means that Player B had a better offensive career than Player A. Player A is Sammy Sosa and Player B is Brian Giles.

In conclusion, 500 home runs should no longer mean an automatic election into the Baseball Hall of Fame. It is not uncommon for players of the present era to rack up a lot of career home runs, and even do so while not even standing out in their era or even really having a great offensive career.

Putting a grade on recent long term contracts

During this year’s major league baseball offseason, we have seen Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder sign two of the four largest contracts in baseball history. Pujols’ ten year, $254 million with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim puts him in second place all-time, with Alex Rodriguez being the only player in MLB history to have signed a larger deal, while Fielder’s nine year, $214 million with the Detroit Tigers is good for fourth all-time. At this point in time, there is no question that these two players are both in the top 5 when it comes to ranking 1B for the entire league, but the more pressing issue is if both of them will still be as highly regarded throughout the entirety of their new deals. Most players are worth what they sign for up front, but what becomes interesting is if the same can be said for them once their contract runs up, or if they maintain that status for a majority of their new contract. Below is a small analysis of some of the larger contracts that have been signed in recent year, and how the player fared throughout the duration of it (or up to this point of it) compared to his stats before.

Alex Rodriguez (Part 2): 10 years (2008 – 2017), $275M with the New York Yankees

After an impressive first four years in New York, the Yankees granted Rodriguez free agency and signed him for an additional ten more years, which started at age 32. It will be interesting to see how Rodriguez holds up for the last six years of this deal, as he has yet to play in more than 138 games starting in 2008 when he resigned. 2011 was the first time since 1997 that he did not have both a 30 HR and 100 RBI season, and his 2008 through 2011 BA of .284 and OBP of .375 are below his career marks of .302 and .386, while his SLG and OPS of .521 and .896 respectively are way off par in comparison to his impressive career marks in those categories of .567 and .953. The .284 / .375 / .521 stat line would be great for most, but not a guy who will earn $143M over the next six years, and only appeared in 99 games in 2011 at the age of 35. In the end, the Yankees jumped the gun on this one and did not consider the fact that he would be 41 when it was all said and done. Grade: B so far.

Alex Rodriguez (Part 1): 10 years (2001 – 2010), $252M with the Texas Rangers

In playing six full seasons with the Seattle Mariners through the 2000 season, Alex Rodriguez became a free agent going into his age 25 season. Although the Rangers themselves did not fair too well from 2001 to 2003, they got what they paid for, and the same went for the Yankees once he was traded to New York prior to the 2004 season. From 2001 to 2007 (prior to the Yankees resigning him to another 10 year deal), Rodriguez had a line of .304 / .400 / .591, while also leading the AL in HR five times (329 total from 2001 to 2007), and winning three AL MVP awards. This was the greatest free agent signing of all time, and set the bar for what player production in all other big-time deals should be compared to. Grade: A

Derek Jeter: 10 years (2001 – 2010), $189M with the New York Yankees

After leading New York to four World Series titles (1996, 1998-2000), the Yankees signed their team captain before he could ever reach the free agent market. Those ten years would see a very slight drop-off in Jeter’s production, as he went .310 / .380 / .445 from 2001 to 2010 in comparison to .322 / .394 / .468 in his first five full seasons (including a couple appearances in 1995). The Yankees got about what they should have expected to get out of Jeter for those 10 years, as his 2001 to 2010 slash stat line mentioned before is almost identical to the one for his career of .313 / .383 / .449. Grade: A-

Joe Mauer: 8 years (2011 – 2018), $184M with the Minnesota Twins

This is the ultimate catch 22s of all deals. Mauer’s worth at the time came from the fact that he was much more valuable than any other catcher in the league (3 AL Batting Titles and the slash stat triple crown in 2009), but with a significant history of injuries, it seems unlikely that Mauer could catch for the entirety of the deal, but at the same time, a position change eliminates the idea that he is much better in comparison to the rest at his position. Through 2010, he was a very impressive .327 / .407 / .481 while serving as a full time catcher, but drastically dropped to .287 / .360 / .368 in 2011 with only 3 HR all year as bilateral leg weakness and pneumonia limited him to only 82 games, while starting at catcher for only 47 of them. Grade: Too early to tell, but not a great start.

Mark Teixeira: 8 years (2009 – 2016), $180M with the New York Yankees

Teixeira arrived in the Bronx in 2009 with an impressive career OPS of .919 (.378 OBP and .541 SLG) and five straight years of at least 30 HR and 100 RBI with the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. In his first year with the Yankees, he lead the AL in HR, RBI, and Total Bases, and the Yankees went on to win their 27^th World Series. His consecutive 30 HR and 100 RBI stretch is now up to eight straight years, but his slash stat line in decreasing tremendously each year (2009: .292 / .383 / .565, 2010: .256 / .365 / .481, 2011: .248 / .341 / .494). With five years left, the Yankees hope that Teixeira’s notorious slow starts to each season is not a representation of year long production from here on out. Grade: B

Manny Ramirez: 8 years (2001 – 2008), $160M with the Boston Red Sox

After eight seasons and two World Series appearances with the Cleveland Indians, Manny Ramirez moved on in 2001 to the Boston Red Sox in his age 29 season. Say what you want about the controversial end that Ramirez would have with the Red Sox (he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in 2008), but at the same time recognize that this was the second best free agent signing in terms of a player changing teams in recent memory. Manny’s line in his thirties with the Red Sox actually slightly increased in all three categories from his time in Cleveland (.315 / .415 / .595 with Boston compared to .313 / .407 / .592 with Cleveland). He would also lead Boston to two World Series titles during his tenure, being named World Series MVP in 2004. Grade: A

Troy Tulowitzki: 10 years (2011 – 2020), $157.75M with the Colorado Rockies

Prior to the 2011 season, the Rockies pulled and move similar to that of the Yankees with Derek Jeter ten years prior. After his first full season under his deal, Tulowitzki had his first 30 HR and 100 RBI season while also having an OPS over .900 for the third straight year. The Rockies should expect to see the same reward in signing Tulo long term that the Yankees did in signing Jeter. They basically have the new generation’s version of Cal Ripken Jr., besides the fact that Tulo is an upgrade. Grade: Too early to tell. Good start so far.

Miguel Cabrera: 8 years (2008 – 2015), $152.3M with the Detroit Tigers

On December 4, 2007: The Florida Marlins traded Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo. Maybe the whole Dontrelle Willis end of the trade did not quite work out for Detroit, but the Cabrera end of it will allow it to go down as one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. The Tigers then signed Cabrera long-term right away at age 25, and since arriving in Detroit, he has had four straight 30 HR and 100 RBI seasons, and has asserted himself as one of the top 3 hitters in the entire league over the past two years going .328 / .420 / .622 in 2010 and .344 / .448 / .586 in 2011. He has also been as durable as they come, playing at least 160 games in three out of the four years. Grade: A

Todd Helton: 11 years (2001 – 2011), $151.5M with the Colorado Rockies

In eight out of the eleven years of this initial deal, the most under-rated player of the past decade had an OBP over .400, good for .424 in the aggregate. His production dropped off to what would be expected as a player nears the end of his career (the Rockies gave him 11 years at the age of 27), but right before the injuries caught up to him, he was able to lead the Rockies to the first World Series appearance in franchise history. Grade: B+

Carl Crawford: 7 years (2011 – 2017), $142M with the Boston Red Sox

The only non-pitcher ever to get a deal over $100M that had never had a 20 HR season. Crawford should only be viewed as a SB guy, and his already low career OBP of .337 in 9 years with the Rays plummeted to .289 in his first year with the Red Sox. One has to imagine that career low of 18 SB since becoming a full-time player will become the norm for most of the next 6 years, as he will already be 30 years old in 2012. Grade: Too early to tell.

Alfonso Soriano: 8 years (2007 – 2014), $136M with the Chicago Cubs

The Cubs must have been so impressed by his 40 HR / 40 SB with Washington in 2006, that they overlooked his career OBP of .325. Since signing with the Cubs in 2007 at age 31, Soriano has not had a 20 SB season, and his OBP is down to .320 since his arrival on the Windy City’s North Side. Grade: C-

Vernon Wells: 7 years (2008 – 2014), $126M with the Toronto Blue Jays

Why this happened in the first place is the main question to address (.245 / .304 / .402) in 2007, but the Blue Jays quickly recovered by having the Angels take this contract off their hands. The Angels have recovered since then, but it may have been nice to have Mike Napoli for the 2011 season, instead of Wells’ line of .218 / .248 / .412. Grade: D

Based on the above, there seems to be less than a 50 / 50 split between whether or not the players could maintain the same amount of production that they had prior to the big contract. Based on just quick judgment, there does not seem to be any strong indication between whether age plays a huge factor in how a player turns out for his new team, if changing teams has anything to do with it, or if it’s really beneficial to lock a player up before they hit free agency. In the end, the only real consistent indication we have is to avoid players that have low career OBPs. Also, with the way the market works, remember that teams are paying for what the player had produced in the past (for the most part), and it is rare for them to get the same amount of value out of the player as they age towards the end of their career.

Rounding out the other $100M deals (before vs. after):

Jayson Werth: 7 years (2011 – 2017), $126M with the Washington Nationals

.272 / .367 / .481 vs. .232 / .330 / .389

Grade: Too early to tell

Jason Giambi: 7 years (2002 – 2008), $120M with the New York Yankees

.308 / .412 / .545 vs. .260 / .404 / .521

Grade: B

Matt Holliday: 7 years (2010 – 2016), $120M with the St. Louis Cardinals

.318 / .387 / .545 vs. .305 / .389 / .529

Grade: Too early to tell

Carlos Beltran: 7 years (2005 – 2011), $119M with the New York Mets

.284 / .353 / .490 vs. .282 / .369 / .503

Grade: B

Ken Griffey Jr: 9 years (2000 – 2008), $116.5M with the Cincinnati Reds

.299 / .380 / .569 vs. .269 / .361 / .510

Grade: C+/B-

Albert Pujols: 7 years (2004 – 2010), $100M with the St. Louis Cardinals

.334 / .412 / .613 vs. .330 / .432 / .630

Grade: A

Silver Lining Major Theme of Barry Larkin's HOF Election

In what was his 3rd time on the ballot, Barry Larkin received baseball's greatest honor on Monday by being elected the the Baseball Hall of Fame. He was the lone selection of the BBWAA for 2012, a precedent that will not set the tone for the next couple of years as some of the greatest players from the 1990s show up on the ballot starting next year. As the era of the 1980s has began to wrap up and take its final shape in terms of what players from that time were elected, we now move towards finding out how the most controversial era in baseball history will be viewed. Many baseball fans of my generation will wonder how many of the players that were solidified stars when we started watching baseball will end up representing our era when it is all set and done. However, the conversation about players who used performance enhancing drugs and those who should be in or who should not be in can wait for another day. For now, let's look at how it is shaping up so far.

Personally, I started watching baseball around 1992 and 1993, and one of my earliest memories was the strike shortened season of 1994. At that time, there were well-known established great players: Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, and Greg Maddux to name a few. There was also no question at the time that the best SS in the NL was Barry Larkin. As MLB Network so nicely pointed out yesterday, Larkin was way above any other SS of his time. During his career, he posted a stat line of .295/.371/.444, while the league average for SS in the same period was .256/.317/.361. Larkin not only stood out in his era, but he is also had the 10th best career of any SS of all-time. He was NL MVP in 1995, and one year later, became the first SS ever to have a 30 HR / 30 SB season. I can go on and on about Larkin's greatness on the field, but it is his class on and off the field that I would like to draw attention to. He a class act, a great leader, a captain of his hometown team, and something that is not typical these days: a guy who plays his entire career for the same organization. I am proud to say that Barry Larkin was one of the solidified great players of the game when I started watching baseball, and I am even happier that he is the beginning of great players from the era my friends and I grew up with to be elected to the Hall of Fame.

So for now, I am not going to focus on whether certain players should be included or not for whatever reasons, but instead look at what we have at the present moment: a great SS that we had the honor of growing up with to represent the 1990s in the Hall of Fame. Barry Larkin reminds us that even if everyone from our generation is not included, we will still be able to say that we grew up watching some of the best to ever play the game, and there will still be enough of them to represent what we remember from our youth: Greg Maddux, Ken Griffey Jr, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell.

Soon enough, guys who we were fortunate enough to see the entirety of their careers play out will be getting their call, starting with Pedro Martinez is 2015, and when it is all set and done, we will be able to take those that we looked up to growing up, and know that they represent the game just as well as any other era before them.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20050479&topic_id=7417714