More to it than a Career Total

At the conclusion of the 2011 season, Paul Konerko had hit 396 home runs in his career. Throughout the course of getting to that career total, Konerko has had seven seasons in which he has hit 30 or more home runs, with two of those seasons being ones where he had 40+. In 2012, Paul Konerko will be in his age 36 season, and coming off of two consecutive seasons of 30+ in 2010 and 2011, it is not out of the possibility that Paul Konerko will be hitting his 500^th career home run within the next couple of years. With 500 home runs once meaning automatic election to the hall of fame, it will be interesting to see how Konerko is viewed when his time on the ballot comes. In the end, it is important that voters look away from career totals from here on out since 500 home runs does not carry the same significance that it once did because of its common prevalence with today’s players, the fact that 500 home runs does not mean that the player was great in his era, and the fact that 500 home runs does not even signify a career that ranks among the all-time best.

On September 6, 1996, Eddie Murray hit his 500^th career home run, becoming the 15^th player ever to do so, and first to do so since Mike Schmidt did it in 1987. Murray retired in 1997 (Paul Konerko’s first year), and at that point, the 500 home run club looked like this:

1.) Hank Aaron 755

2.) Babe Ruth 714

3.) Willie Mays 660

4.) Frank Robinson 586

5.) Harmon Killebrew 573

6.) Reggie Jackson 563

7.) Mike Schmidt 548

8.) Mickey Mantle 536

9.) Jimmie Foxx 534

10.) Ted Williams and Willie McCovey 521

12.) Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks 512

14.) Mel Ott 511

15.) Eddie Murray 504

Since 1997, the 500 home run club has grown to 25 members, with Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, and Gary Sheffield all reaching that mark. Although 500 home runs is still an exclusive amount for a career (obviously since only 25 guys have accomplished that feat), it has become increasingly more common, and does not carry near the same weight that it once did.

With it becoming more common for players to reach 500 home runs in their career, it is important to point out that guys are doing it without really standing out compared to the rest of their era. The stat that will be used to judge how well a player is standing out offensively in his era is offensive WAR, where baseball reference says that a single season WAR of 5.0 and above is considered an All-Star season. When it comes to Hall of Fame induction, it is very important that a player stands out in his era with All-Star numbers, and to judge if they did that offensively, year-by-year oWAR can be used. In the end, career totals alone do not show how well a player stood out in his era. Take the example between player A and player B:

Player A retired with 1,663 runs, 3,020 hits, 585 2B, 569 HR, and 1,835 RBI in 20 MLB seasons.

Player B retired with 1,139 R, 2,239 H, 500 2B, 255 HR, and 1,230 RBI in 17 seasons.

Based on these career numbers, Player A accumulated a lot of impressive career totals, all of which were higher than Player B’s. However, Player A only had two seasons where he had an oWAR above 5.0, but Player B had three seasons with an oWAR above 5.0, meaning that Player A stood out less often in the era than Player B did, and neither make the cut of how often a player should stand out in their era offensively to eventually earn Hall of Fame election. Player A is Rafael Palmeiro and Player B is John Olerud.

Another factor that has come with the increase in players who have 500 career home runs is the fact that reaching that point does not necessarily mean that the player had a great offensive career. When Eddie Murray became the 15^th member of the 500 home run club back in 1996, all 15 members had a career oWAR that ranked in the top 100 all-time according to Baseball Reference. Since then, players who are reaching the 500 home run mark are not having careers that set themselves apart from other players from their era that had much lesser career totals in home runs. Take another Player A vs Player B example for instance:

Player A hit 609 home runs in his career, and accumulated a career oWAR of 49.8, ranking him tied for 151^st all-time on baseball reference’s career oWAR leader board.

Player B hit 287 home runs in his career, and accumulated a career oWAR of 50.0, ranking him 148^th all-time on baseball reference’s career oWAR leader board.

Based on this, Player B finished his career with a slightly higher career oWAR in three fewer seasons, and you can conclude that this means that Player B had a better offensive career than Player A. Player A is Sammy Sosa and Player B is Brian Giles.

In conclusion, 500 home runs should no longer mean an automatic election into the Baseball Hall of Fame. It is not uncommon for players of the present era to rack up a lot of career home runs, and even do so while not even standing out in their era or even really having a great offensive career.