The Importance of Context

The 2012 Hall of Fame ballot was one of the weaker ones in terms of players who were making their first appearance on it. This was reflected in voting results as well, with Bernie Williams being the only guy in his first year of eligibility gaining more than 5.0% to remain on the ballot for next year. Despite only receiving 9.6% of votes, Bernie Williams still serves as one of the more compelling arguments towards Hall of Fame election if you look at his stats in the context of which he put them up. By looking closer at Williams’ career, a more interesting way to evaluate a player’s stats towards Hall of Fame election comes to the forefront, and it is a much more relevant way to judge a player rather than simple career totals.

Playing his whole career for the Yankees from 1991 to 2006, it is fair to say that Bernie Williams was one of the top 3 CF of that time period, with Ken Griffey Jr. and Jim Edmonds being the other two. One can wrongly look at career totals, and quickly judge Griffey and Edmonds to be better CFs, but if you correctly look on a year by year basis, you can make a case that Williams may have been the best of the 3 offensively for a period of time. Take the 10 year time frame of 1994 through 2003 for example:

Ken Griffey Jr: 847 R (5 100+), 349 HR (6 40+), 931 RBI (5 100+)

Jim Edmonds: 868 R (3 100+), 260 HR (4 30+), 794 RBI (3 100+)

Bernie Williams: 994 R (7 100+), 221 HR (1 of 30), 934 RBI (5 100+)

Looking further into more meaningful numbers over that period:

Griffey: .288 AVG / .381 OBP / .588 SLG

Edmonds: .294 AVG / .381 OBP / .535 SLG

Williams: .314 AVG / .401 OBP / .515 SLG

In fact, from 1994 to 2003, Bernie Williams became the first CF to have a BA over .300, an OBP over .400, and a SLG over .500 for a 10 year period since Mickey Mantle. It is also important to note that Williams led all American League CF in OBP 7 times over that period, with Mantle (10), Ty Cobb (8), and Tris Speaker (8) being the only CFs in American League history to accomplish that more times in a career (The NL record for CF is Willie Mays with 7). Edmonds led the NL CFs in OBP 4 times in his career, and Griffey did the same for CFs in the AL 3 times.

The most important thing to consider within this context is how often each of the 3 players played at an All-Star level in terms of WAR and oWAR over this designated period. Using this as an evaluation, all 3 players indeed had a great 10 year stretch, with Griffey having a 5.0+ WAR and 5.0+ oWAR 5 times, Edmonds 5 times for WAR and 4 times for oWAR, and Williams 5 and 6 times respectively. In the end, Griffey and Edmonds were better all-around CFs for the entirety of their careers, with Griffey already having 3 5.0+ WAR seasons prior to this stretch, and Edmonds having 2 more 5.0+ WAR seasons after 2003. The 5 seasons Williams enjoyed of a 5.0+ WAR during this stretch were the only ones in his career, but still serve to show that he was an impressive player when compared to other greats at his position in his era.

Williams will be hurt by his defense in the end. His dWAR over the period of 1994-2003 was -8.3, while Griffey and Edmonds had dWARs of 4.3 and 6.3 respectively, as both were good defensive CFs over that period. With this, it will be interesting to see how much poor defense can hurt a player’s chances at Hall of Fame election, while so far, we have only seen great defense benefit some guys chances (Ozzie Smith (true) and supposedly Bill Mazeroski).

Another interesting variable that Bernie Williams brings to the table is how much playoff production can benefit a player’s hall of fame chances. During the 10 years of his career that were mentioned earlier, the Yankees were in the playoffs for 9 of them, winning 4 World Series. Williams also arguably slightly outperformed Derek Jeter over that period, going .278 / .386 / .483 to Jeter’s .314 / .385 / .465. Playoff performance should be very highly thought of, but it’s hard to determine in what way and to what extent. It is not out of the question though that Williams is one of the best CFs in the postseason in recent memory.

In the end, it will be interesting to see how Bernie Williams is viewed in future Hall of Fame elections. He is one of the more compelling candidates to ever appear on the ballot, and if anything, is much more of a possible Hall of Fame candidate than the initial 9.6% suggests.

More to it than a Career Total

At the conclusion of the 2011 season, Paul Konerko had hit 396 home runs in his career. Throughout the course of getting to that career total, Konerko has had seven seasons in which he has hit 30 or more home runs, with two of those seasons being ones where he had 40+. In 2012, Paul Konerko will be in his age 36 season, and coming off of two consecutive seasons of 30+ in 2010 and 2011, it is not out of the possibility that Paul Konerko will be hitting his 500^th career home run within the next couple of years. With 500 home runs once meaning automatic election to the hall of fame, it will be interesting to see how Konerko is viewed when his time on the ballot comes. In the end, it is important that voters look away from career totals from here on out since 500 home runs does not carry the same significance that it once did because of its common prevalence with today’s players, the fact that 500 home runs does not mean that the player was great in his era, and the fact that 500 home runs does not even signify a career that ranks among the all-time best.

On September 6, 1996, Eddie Murray hit his 500^th career home run, becoming the 15^th player ever to do so, and first to do so since Mike Schmidt did it in 1987. Murray retired in 1997 (Paul Konerko’s first year), and at that point, the 500 home run club looked like this:

1.) Hank Aaron 755

2.) Babe Ruth 714

3.) Willie Mays 660

4.) Frank Robinson 586

5.) Harmon Killebrew 573

6.) Reggie Jackson 563

7.) Mike Schmidt 548

8.) Mickey Mantle 536

9.) Jimmie Foxx 534

10.) Ted Williams and Willie McCovey 521

12.) Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks 512

14.) Mel Ott 511

15.) Eddie Murray 504

Since 1997, the 500 home run club has grown to 25 members, with Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas, and Gary Sheffield all reaching that mark. Although 500 home runs is still an exclusive amount for a career (obviously since only 25 guys have accomplished that feat), it has become increasingly more common, and does not carry near the same weight that it once did.

With it becoming more common for players to reach 500 home runs in their career, it is important to point out that guys are doing it without really standing out compared to the rest of their era. The stat that will be used to judge how well a player is standing out offensively in his era is offensive WAR, where baseball reference says that a single season WAR of 5.0 and above is considered an All-Star season. When it comes to Hall of Fame induction, it is very important that a player stands out in his era with All-Star numbers, and to judge if they did that offensively, year-by-year oWAR can be used. In the end, career totals alone do not show how well a player stood out in his era. Take the example between player A and player B:

Player A retired with 1,663 runs, 3,020 hits, 585 2B, 569 HR, and 1,835 RBI in 20 MLB seasons.

Player B retired with 1,139 R, 2,239 H, 500 2B, 255 HR, and 1,230 RBI in 17 seasons.

Based on these career numbers, Player A accumulated a lot of impressive career totals, all of which were higher than Player B’s. However, Player A only had two seasons where he had an oWAR above 5.0, but Player B had three seasons with an oWAR above 5.0, meaning that Player A stood out less often in the era than Player B did, and neither make the cut of how often a player should stand out in their era offensively to eventually earn Hall of Fame election. Player A is Rafael Palmeiro and Player B is John Olerud.

Another factor that has come with the increase in players who have 500 career home runs is the fact that reaching that point does not necessarily mean that the player had a great offensive career. When Eddie Murray became the 15^th member of the 500 home run club back in 1996, all 15 members had a career oWAR that ranked in the top 100 all-time according to Baseball Reference. Since then, players who are reaching the 500 home run mark are not having careers that set themselves apart from other players from their era that had much lesser career totals in home runs. Take another Player A vs Player B example for instance:

Player A hit 609 home runs in his career, and accumulated a career oWAR of 49.8, ranking him tied for 151^st all-time on baseball reference’s career oWAR leader board.

Player B hit 287 home runs in his career, and accumulated a career oWAR of 50.0, ranking him 148^th all-time on baseball reference’s career oWAR leader board.

Based on this, Player B finished his career with a slightly higher career oWAR in three fewer seasons, and you can conclude that this means that Player B had a better offensive career than Player A. Player A is Sammy Sosa and Player B is Brian Giles.

In conclusion, 500 home runs should no longer mean an automatic election into the Baseball Hall of Fame. It is not uncommon for players of the present era to rack up a lot of career home runs, and even do so while not even standing out in their era or even really having a great offensive career.