It Takes Two to Collapse

A lot of people are going to be talking about this epic Detroit Tigers collapse for years to come.  Honestly, more people might remember their collapse than the Twins' push to claim the Central crown in the 163rd game of the season.  But you know what?  I never thought I'd be saying this, but I just might give the Twins more credit than I give blame to the Tigers.  Sure, they had to lose more than their fair share to make this magical journey possible (trust me, if you were at the game tonight you know that the only to word to describe this is magical) but the fact of the matter is the Twins grabbed the opportunity by the throat.  

And yes, this is coming from the same person who declared the Twins "dead in the water" just a few weeks ago.  I stand behind my reasoning but so often sports defy our logic and transcend the realm of what seems even remotely possible.  Just think about this Minnesota Twins team from a non-biased standpoint for two seconds and anyone who is being reasonable knows that this team should never have made the playoffs.  Their starting pitching struggled mightily all year, their bullpen was anything but stellar, and to top it off their 2nd best player (Justin Morneau) was lost for the season.  How does this sound like a recipe for success?

The only answer that anyone can really give is that this team has that "it" factor this year.  Maybe it's the hand of God or it's just the way the ball is bouncing that year, but whatever it is, there often seems to be one team that finds a way to do the impossible.  The 2009 Minnesota Twins are just the latest example and this whole idea was wrapped up into one game on a brutal night for baseball.  TGFTD (Thank God For The Dome) except next year were gonna be playing playoff baseball in weather better suited for an Iditarod.  However, I digress.  

This game showed a team that despite giving up chances, not always capitalizing, and making a handful of mistakes still somehow finding a way to win.  And that's the "it" factor.  No matter what happened tonight, it never really seemed like the Twins were going to lose.  Even after Delmon Young took another first pitch hack and tapped softly to Polanco late in the game, you still felt like they were going to score.  No matter what, that positivity, that "it", was still there.  It's almost like a combo naivete-optimism-electricity that a team feeds off of and it was fun to watch.  Maybe the Dome creates it.  Whatever it is, I look forward to seeing it again.  And hey, for at least one more week, TGFTD.

Playoff Predictions

Here we are in mid September and it seems like we don't have quite the division races we'd all hope for. The only division that isn't seemingly locked up is the NL West. The two wild card races are close but in the AL it's really only a two-team race. Watching the NL West and the Wild Cards should be fun for the next couple of weeks. That said, let's get into some playoff predictions.

Assuming that the current divisional leaders don't pull a 2008 New York Mets, we'll assume that all of those divisions are locked up except for the NL West. Out there, I do like the current division leader, the Dodgers, but it's obviously not even close to locked up. They've got the right manager to keep them playing good baseball down the stretch, a left fielder that's clueless enough to not let the pressure get to him, and still a good lineup with some surprisingly good pitching. It does bother me that the Giants can't find a way to be in this discussion. When you've got two top of the line guys like Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, you really shouldn't be letting the Rockies relegate you to third position in your division. That said....

The Giants are going to make a run at this wild card. They're only 4 out and 9 of their remaining games come against the Diamondbacks (6) and the Padres (3). I don't know about you, but I'd love finishing my season with 6 games against those two teams. While the Rockies have 6 left against these two, they also have a 3 game set with the Cardinals and another set with the Dodgers to close out the season. And this is just scheduling stuff...I find it so hard to buy into a team that has JASON MARQUIS as its ace. This guy hasn't even been worthy of a playoff start on teams in the past, but all of the sudden he's the ace of a playoff contender? Hey, everyone has their moment. This Rockies team might end up being far too similar to that team of 2007. No one saw them coming and they ended up in the World Series. Dare I miss that boat again? I'll stick with them to hold onto the Wild Card.

Then we've got the AL Wild Card. Who would have thought that the Texas Rangers would find themselves in this position this late in the season playing a good portion of their games without Josh Hamilton? That lineup is deep and their pitching has been unbelievably good, at least relative to what they've been in the past. As a team, they rank 5th in the AL in ERA, 4th in BAA, 5th in OPS, 4th in saves, and 5th in WHIP. Not elite, but again, good enough to keep them in the playoff race. Who knows where they might be if Josh Hamilton had stayed healthy/not stayed out drinking with hot blondes? At the end of the day, the AL is just too deep and too good. In the NL, this team probably wins the West or at the very least the Wild Card. But in the AL? Simply not happening...the Red Sox appear to be down and they're still an 84-58 team. How often can a team go almost 30 games over .500 and not even be in a divisional race? Sorry, Texas...not this year.

Moving onto the actual playoffs...my NLCS matchup: Cardinals vs. Dodgers. I said I'm not missing the boat on the Rockies this time, but that just means to make the playoffs. I'll let other people take a team with Jason Marquis as their ace. But what about the Phillies you say? Hey I might be all for it just so I can see Pujols hit another 8,450,867 foot home-run off of Lidge. Teams don't win in October without a closer. Period. Especially not teams whose starting pitching is VERY mediocre. Picking the Phillies is kind of like the Lloyd Christmas and Mary Swanson love story. Sure, you met the Phillies last October, sparks flew, emotions ran high. They actually won the World Series, man. Then you come to this October. Turns out Mary is married and the Phillies aren't nearly the same team you saw last October. Cool, Phillies hit bombs. But they're not winning this October.

Back to the actual matchup, I'll take the Cardinals in 6. Wainwright, Carpenter, Pineiro...I love it. Pineiro might be the most untalked about great pitcher this year. No, not great for a career but in 2009 Joel Piniero is actually a great pitcher. His WHIP is up there with the best in the league and with a little more luck in terms of run support he might actually be in that Cy Young convo with Wainwright and Carpenter.

Over on the AL side, I'm looking forward to a New York-LA matchup. Boston might make a run at the ALCS, but they just don't have that "it" this year. They feel almost like they've gotten old, like the Yankees. And I know that's not necessarily true, but there's nothing special about that team. On the other hand, LA and New York have been ridiculous this year. When you're watching your ESPN ticker, don't be confused when it says MLB on the left and the score is New York 14 Los Angeles 10. ESPN didn't go haywire and accidentally start putting football scores into the MLB section--that legitimately might be the score of some games. I'll take the over in most games in this series.

Ultimately, the Yankees power past LA in 5. The Yanks just score too many runs and are too good. If they get good starting performances in all of the games, a sweep wouldn't surprise me. They've got a bullpen that's been surprisingly good between starters and Rivera and then Rivera is Rivera. Although who knows what can happen in that stadium...Angels might end up hitting a couple of popflys that get out and winning a couple of fluke games then bringing the series to LA and getting the thunder sticks and that stupid Rally Monkey going. Memo to Yankees: Take out the monkey. Bring back Bernie Williams. Maybe he can put it to sleep with some of his jazz music.

So a Cardinals vs. Yankees matchup. The two most traditionally successful franchises squaring off for the first time in the Fall Classic since '64. I actually don't think you could ask for a better Series this year. Call me biased, but I'm taking the Cardinals in 7. With Matt Holliday the Cardinals lineup is explosive and their pitching should be able to temper the Yanks enough for Pujols and the rest of the crew to inflict some damage and win four ballgames. I thought about picking the Yankees because they really do look stacked this year but I couldn't. I'm not picking against Pujols. I think if I do, he might somehow someway find out that I did and invite me to his Hall of Fame acceptance speech and call me out in front of every reputable baseball player and mind alive. Hell clearly would be my fate. So I'm sticking with Pujols and the best pitching staff of 2009. And hey, they actually have a closer this year (or did until lately...it's a mirage, he's still great. I hope, I hope...)

Have we Overlooked Greatness?

As the 2009 season enters into its final month, many of us are coming to the realization that some of the greatest players of our generation are entering into their final years (Ken Griffey, Jr, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz) and some have possibly already put on the uniform for the last time (Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds). With all of these greats on the verge of retirement, we might be making the mistake of overlooking another great from our generation. Although he is only 32, the Andruw Jones of today is not the Andruw Jones we grew up with. Although he has had some success in very limited time with the Texas Rangers this year, it seems as though he is a complete afterthought in most baseball circles. Many might even have found it surprising when I mentioned that he is only 32, and with that being said, I would like to look at some of his accomplishments in the game of baseball before the age of 30, and assess his place among the all-time greats in that regard.

The first fact that I would like to bring to everyone’s attention is that Andruw Jones is far and away the greatest defensive Center Fielder of all-time. This is where I’m hoping to stir up the most debate, but throw out the name of any other Center Fielder that you feel worthy of discussion and he will not be able to compete with the defensive numbers that Andruw Jones has put up over his career.

The second point I would like to make is in regards to his overall play in center field over the course of his career, and even more so before the age of 30. As discussed in my article “Looking Beyond the Gold Gloves,” I would like to again bring up the statistics of Batting Runs Above Average and Fielding Runs Above Average. I would like to take the sum of these two categories to determine overall play as a center fielder. When doing this, it turns out that there are only 24 center fielders in the history of major league baseball that have a combined BRAA and FRAA over 300, meaning that they produced over 300 more runs at bat and in the field for their team than the average player would have had playing in the spot instead. Those 24 players are: Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Ken Griffey Jr, Jim Edmonds, Billy Hamilton, Jimmy Wynn, Bernie Williams, Caesar Cedeno, Andruw Jones, Richie Ashburn, Carlos Beltran, Al Oliver, Brett Butler, Duke Snider, Chet Lemon, Kirby Puckett, Andy Van Slyke, Erik Davis, Larry Doby, Kenny Lofton, and Johnny Damon. So maybe this is not the most exclusive of all lists, but it is only 24 players out of everyone who has ever played center field in the major leagues as a main position. However, if you add another element to this, the list becomes decently exclusive. Out of all the center fielders to ever play in the majors, here are the only players that have ever reached a combined BRAA and FRAA of over 300 before the age of 30: Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr, Joe DiMaggio, Andruw Jones, Caesar Cedeno, and Larry Doby. My main point is that Andruw Jones remains 1 of the only 9 players ever to accomplish this feat, and out of these nine, six out of the seven who are eligible for the hall of fame are in (Griffey will be sure to make seven out of eight soon).

Another interesting fact about Andruw Jones’ career before the age of 30 is the home run totals he put up year in and year out. In fact, the only active players to have more 30 home run seasons than Andruw Jones before the age of 30 are: Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols (Jones had 7 and the other 2 had 9). When we extend this beyond just active players, it turns out that the only players in the history of major league baseball to have more 30 home run seasons than Andruw Jones before the age of 30 are Arod, Pujols, Jimmie Foxx, and Eddie Mathews. I should note that Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, and Mel Ott all had seven 30 home run seasons before the age of 30, which ties them with Jones, but still, he once again finds himself in great company.

The final issue I would like to point out about Andruw Jones’ career pre-30 years old is that he was perhaps the best all-around player on a team that won the NL East every year from the time he entered the league at age 19 in 1996 until 2005 when he was 28. Although he just missed out on the Braves team that won the World Series in 1995, he still was a key part to 10 of the 14 consecutive division titles.

In the end, Andruw Jones will most likely not put up the same career numbers as some of the greatest players ever to play the game. He will not be remembered as one of the greatest players of our generation as well. Sustaining such a high level of play for many years is an integral part of a great career, but when it comes to making a huge impact at such a young age, it’s hard to find as many center fielders as great as Andruw Jones.

NL Cy Young

I've reached the point in the summer, actually I reached it about 4 weeks ago, where I find myself

losing my mind. It seems like half of the things I do at this point are mindless and I'm not even paying attention. I flip channels, I workout, I do whatever...and find myself with half an hour less of my life and not really sure what happened during that time. Hell, this morning the TV was on and next thing I realized I see Ellen DeGeneres two-stepping across my screen. What??! But then I realized things don't need to be quite this boring. That's why it's time for some good old-fashioned Cy Young debate. We'll leave the MVP argument alone for now and might for the whole season since it SHOULD be locked up already in both leagues (Pujols, Mauer). But for the Cy Young race, nothing is nearly as clear cut.

Let's look at the National League. At one point, we could've just said it's a two-on-two battle, Giants vs. Cardinals and we'll just give it to the two guys on that team. Matt Cain has faded slightly so that Giants/Cardinals 2 v 2 matchup won't occur, but it's safe to say that three out of those four are still battling. Unfortunately for Wainwright, it's highly unlikely he could convince voters that he's even the best pitcher on his own team let alone the best in the league. It's too bad for him but probably the truth. He's one of a handful of guys that I'd like to put out there in October but in that handful includes Chris Carpenter.

It seems like right now Lincecum is the front runner for the Cy Young because of pitching's equivalent to that sexy home run number--strikeouts. With his 222 total strikeouts and 10.3 K's/9 innings, it's hard to argue with just how dominant he can be. He was electric last year but then he went and got better, developing a changeup simply to ruin hitters' lives. But just because he might be improved from last year when he did win it doesn't make him a shoo-in for this year. It's not just about him, it's about the rest of the league, namely Chris Carpenter.

Carpenter is ahead of Lincecum in an overrated, but still important (and in Cy Young voters' minds seemingly far too important) category--wins. But it's not just wins that he leads him, it's ERA and WHIP, giving Carpenter an edge on Lincecum in 3 of the bigger pitching stats people pay attention to. And you know what? I think the guy deserves some credit for battling through injuries and coming back like they don't even matter. It's actually starting to seem like Carpenter is MLB's Jack Bauer. And this season is kind of like season 6. He got hurt, kind of like Bauer being released to the terrorists, but then when you're expecting the worst he comes out of nowhere, guns a' blazin', to lead the Cardinals to the playoffs. (By the way season 6 of 24 is an awful waste of anyone's time...Jack escapes terrorists, Jack yells at people, Jack kills terrorists, Jack saves country, country hates Jack, to be continued...seriously, save yourself the time).

Anyways, look to the guy that keeps guys off base better than any starting pitcher in the league (0.96 WHIP) and wins games at a better rate than anyone (.824 winning %) for your NL Cy Young. Lincecum does have some sexy looking numbers, but come October, I'll take Carp. (And by the way I'll go ahead and take his Cardinal team to represent the NL in the World Series. And who would've thought...I could've maybe even brought JOEL PINEIRO into this discussion! Don't laugh. I'm only kind of a Cardinals' rube)

Looking Beyond the Gold Gloves

At the end of every season, we see the annual awards handed out, with the least debated coming first: the Rawlings Gold Glove Awards. Many might like to argue over whether each MVP winner or Cy Young Award recipient was the most deserving, but not much thought seems to go into the Gold Glove selections. Maybe it’s because we are too trusting of defensive abilities of the same players that are selected year in and year out. The idea has been thrown out that the Gold Glove awards are more of a name recognition award, and certain players have been able to settle into the award for their position and accumulate a respective amount over the course of their career. In this article, I would like to explore some of the Gold Glove award winners at the Shortstop position, and share my thoughts towards whether or not we can really view them as great defensive shortstops.

Shortstop is the second toughest defensive position to play (catcher is first). The following is a list of the shortstops who have won the Gold Glove the most amount of times in their career: Ozzie Smith (13), Omar Vizquel (11), Luis Aparicio (9), Mark Belanger (8), Dave Concepcion (5), Tony Fernandez and Alan Trammell (4), Derek Jeter (3). Although there are others who won 3 in their career, the reason I only listed Derek Jeter from that group is because I would like to examine his defensive ability as a shortstop. Indeed, Derek Jeter is a great all-around shortstop, but his offensive numbers carry most of the weight. At first glance, he has a career fielding percentage of .976 which is close to Ozzie Smith’s career .978. We will focus more on the Wizard later. As for now, I will say that looking at someone’s fielding percentage is probably the last stat you should look at to determine their worth as a defender. For example, it in no way punishes an infielder for lacking range. We will get to this idea in a bit. From 2004 to 2008, Derek Jeter ranked ninth, ninth, eleventh, sixteenth, and seventh in fielding percentage among all shortstops who qualified. Now these ranks aren’t anything to write home about, but what I am about to reveal to you is. Keep in mind that Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove for American League Shortstops from 2004 to 2006. I would now like to introduce a defensive stat I found on the Hardball Times website known as OOZ. OOZ stands for Out of Zone and as defined by the site is the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside his zone. From 2004 to 2008, Derek Jeter had OOZ totals of 29, 26, 28, 35, and 29. This might not mean anything to you yet, but to give you an idea, the league leaders in OOZ from 2004 to 2008 were Miguel Tejada (93), Rafael Furcal and Adam Everett (78), Bill Hall (66), Troy Tulowitzki (87), and JJ Hardy (72). In fact, in the years that he won 3 Gold Glove Awards in a row, Derek Jeter ranked 22/22, 25/25, and 23/24 among all shortstops who qualified for fielding percentage in those years. So it might be safe to say that Jeter was handed his 3 Gold Glove Awards on a name recognition basis based on him finishing last twice and second to last in this very important range statistic. I’m certain that one cannot be viewed as a great defensive shortstop with contributing the range factor.

I would now like to shift gears back to the list of the top Gold Glove winners at the shortstop position. Based on this award, the top two defensive shortstops of all-time are Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel. Many would agree with these two being the best defensive shortstops of all-time, but is that really the case? The answer is partially. Over his career, Ozzie Smith posted a fielding percentage of .978. Omar Vizquel up to this point has one of .986. Smith’s best defensive season based on fielding percentage (.987), would only rank tenth among Omar Vizquel’s best defensive seasons based on fielding percentage (His best was .998 and he is fielding 1.000 up to this point of the season while seeing limited time for the Texas Rangers). However, this by no means indicates that Vizquel is a better defensive shortstop than Smith, and his fielding percentages are so misleading that he has wrongly been assessed as a quality defensive shortstop over his career. For this argument, I would like to examine the stat FRAA, which stands for fielding runs above average and can be found on the Baseball Prospectus website. One can basically look at FRAA as the amount of runs a defender saves his team in the field in comparison to what an average shortstop would have saved if he was playing in that spot instead. Here is a look at the year by year FRAA totals for Smith and Vizquel:

Smith (1978-1996): 10, 4, 18, 14, 26, 24, 25, 51, 13, 18, 30, 39, 14, 22, 39, 24, 2, 0, 14

Vizquel (1989-2009): 10, -11, 1, -15, -11, -2, -6, 3, 5, 5, 22, -12, -5, -27, 3, -7, -3, -16, 9, -2, 6

It is pretty much common knowledge that Ozzie Smith is the greatest defensive shortstop of all-time and the numbers back this up. He won the Gold Glove Award for NL shortstops 13 years in a row (1980-1992). During these 13 years, he saved the Cardinals 333 runs above the average shortstop through his amazing defense. Every one of those years, he fielded well above the average in terms of FRAA, and much can be attributed to his ability to range to balls up the middle that no one else could. Omar Vizquel won the AL Gold Glove Award for shortstops 9 years in a row (1993-01) and then twice in the NL (2005-06). During his 11 seasons in which he claimed the Gold Glove Award, he actually saved his teams 20 runs less than an average shortstop would have (meaning that he actually cost them 20). I’m not sure that this should be a true attribute of an 11 time Gold Glove Award Winner. Vizquels best season of FRAA would rank tied for 9th in comparison to Smith’s best seasons of FRAA. In the end, Ozzie Smith saved the Cards 387 runs more than the average shortstop would have in a 19 year career, and Vizquel has cost his teams 53 more runs than an average shortstop would up to this point in his career. What this means in the end is that between the two leading Gold Glove Award winners at the shortstop position, Ozzie Smith saved his team 440 more runs in FRAA than Vizquel has.

As shown above, fielding percentages are terrible determinants of a players overall defensive ability. They have been very misleading when it has come to evaluating a player’s defensive ability and have probably cost more deserving players their shot at winning Gold Glove Awards. At the high level of play that is Major League Baseball, we should come to expect that a player should successfully field a ground ball within his range well over 9.5 out of every 10 chances, but it is those that make the plays outside of their zone that really set them apart.

Everything Looks Better in a Weak Division

I declared the Twins dead in the water a couple of weeks ago and regardless of their recent success (against two minor-league clubs, not that it matters…) I stand by that.  Twins fans seem to be talking about why they hadn’t gone out and got this player or that player and they rattle off numbers about how well those guys are hitting with their other clubs…these things are all fine, except they don’t address the issue at hand for this ballclub: pitching. 

            People have begun to realize that the Twins pitching staff is not good but when talking about ways to better the team it’s always about getting rid of Delmon Young or Nick Punto and how we missed out on a guy like Mark DeRosa.  Fine points if you’re looking for one more piece to put together a World Series run, but you’re not.  This team needs pitching and needs it bad.  Gone are the days of Twins 2-1 victories (haters, go ahead and bring up their most recent 2-1 win) and in have come a slew of 7-6 type wins.  Personally, I think this pitching staff has been overrated in past years but they have put up the numbers to back up the hype.  However, the second they lost Johan they became an average pitching staff at best with no identifiable #1 starter.   This year especially, they have shown that they have a collection of 3, 4, and 5 type starters that are being thrust into 1 and 2 roles.  Around the league there are a few 4 and 5 starters that would be the Twins #1 starter if they found themselves in the Minnesota pinstripes. 

            Hopefully the Twins address starting pitching issues as well as the bullpen in this offseason.  I say but am prepared for what seems to be the case every year where Twins fans are sold on the pitching staff continuing to improve and getting better from within.  This latter excuse for not making any moves is where the most pain is going to come.  This is at least the second consecutive year where the Twins enter the offseason desperately needing some bullpen help.  Yet, if Pat Neshek gets healthy and can pitch in 2010, the fans who have paid for the beautiful new home of the Minnesota Twins will again be sold on a cost-effective way to be just good enough to compete in a consistently overrated division.  Call me a cynic, call me an outsider, but this is just the things seem to be.  Cool, more revenue from Target Field…show me what it does for the on-field product.  Results need to be demanded and that starts in the offseason…sign a big-time ace, bolster the bullpen, and stop wasting the prime of two premier offensive players (Mauer and Morneau…but if you didn’t know that you probably didn’t find your way to this website).   

Hall Worthy?

Being elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame is the highest honor any ballplayer could ever receive. Every January, new players are selected to enter baseball immortality in Cooperstown, New York. However, this election always ends with many fans revisiting the never ending question of whether or not we are excluding some former greats that are deserving. For every Bill Mazeroski and Jim Rice that finally makes it in, there are the Andre Dawsons and Bert Blylevens of the world left wondering what they have to do to finally gain their respective 75% of the votes. In this article, I would like to examine who is in my opinion the best baseball player that is not in the hall of fame, excluding those banned for life (Pete Rose, Joe Jackson, Buck Weaver) or falling short on votes due to steroid speculation (Mark McGwire, and many more to come once eligible), compare him to other hall of famers in his era, and ultimately open the question of whether or not we use the right criteria to elect ballplayers to the Hall of Fame. I will not be including pitchers in this article, so the Bert Blyleven and Lee Smith debates will be saved for a later date.
In order to be elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame, a player must receive 75% of the votes from the BBWAA. They are eligible for election as long as they played 10 major league seasons and have been retired for 5 years. Once retired for 5 years, the player appears on the BBWAA ballot for 15 years, and if they are not elected within that time frame, they move on to the Veteran’s Committee. However, once placed on the Veteran’s Committee, the likelihood of making it vastly diminishes.
The official Baseball Hall of Fame website states that “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” At first glance, it seems that the main criteria in reality for hall of fame voting is career stats, mostly of which are the traditional (HR, RBI, AVG). This may be a true judge of durability and a long career, but does can career totals be misleading? The answer is absolutely. To prove my point, I will examine the career of Dick Allen, the best player who is not in the hall of fame.
Glancing over Dick Allen’s career numbers, he may not have the totals to catch the attention of most voters, or make him stand out in comparison to other borderline hall of famers. For instance, he played for 15 seasons, appearing in 1,749 games with 6,332 at bats. He notched 1,848 hits over his career, 320 of which were doubles. For the main three traditional stats, his line was 351 HR, 1,119 RBI, and a .292 AVG. These display a very good career, but probably do not stand alone to make a run at the hall of fame given the career totals of other players in his era. However, when looking beyond the career totals and examining the important stats, one may feel that he should have found himself in the hall long ago.
The other two players we will be comparing Allen to are Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew. Both players are Hall of Famers and based on the Hall of Fame Monitor scores should be. The Hall of Fame monitor was created by Bill James as a way to judge whether a player is a hall of famer based on career totals, times he led the league in certain hitting statistics, and success of the team he played for. A score over 100 suggests a likely hall of famer with 130 or more being a lock. Killebrew registers in at 178, McCovey at 110, and Allen at 99. Let’s take a closer look at their career totals. Dick Allen has a career stat line of: 1,749 Games, 6,332 at bats, 1,099 runs, 1,848 hits, 320 doubles, 351 homers, 1,119 rbi, 133 stolen bases, 894 bb, .292 average, .378 OBP, .534 SLG, and .912 OPS. McCovey finished with 2,588 games, 8,197 AB, 1,229 R, 2,211 H, 353 2B, 521 HR, 1,555 RBI, 26 SB, 1,345 BB, .270 AVG, .374 OBP, .515 SLG, and an OPS of .889. Killebrew recorded 2,435 games, 8,147 AB, 1,283 R, 2,086 H, 290 2B, 573 HR, 1,584 RBI, 19 SB, 1,559 BB, .256 AVG, .376 OBP, .509 SLG, and an OPS of .885.
The two hall of famers lead in all non-rate categories except for stolen bases, but when you get to the important slash stats, we see Allen with a significant lead in Batting Average, but more importantly, leads in both OBP and SLG and therefore OPS. In fact, Dick Allen is 1 of the 65 players with a career OPS over .900. Career totals are perhaps unfair though, as seen by both McCovey and Killebrew having almost as many as 2,000 more at bats than Allen. I think a more interesting comparison would be to look at how these totals matched up on a year by year basis or in comparison to their respective leagues at the time.
The following totals show how many times each player led their respective leagues in the following statistics: HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS: Allen- 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 4 McCovey- 3, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3 Killebrew- 6, 3, 0, 1, 1, 0. With the most important of all the stats in the table, Dick Allen leads the way having led his respective league in OBP more than the other two in his career, as well as OPS. When it comes to the OPS aspect, Allen is one of only 17 players in the history of baseball to lead their respective league in OPS four or more times in a career. The others include: Dan Brouthers, Ed Delahanty, Honus Wagner, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson, and Frank Thomas. Notice that every single player from that list eligible for the hall of fame has been elected except for Allen.
Let’s now move on to one of my personal favorite statistics: VORP (Value over replacement player). Here is the year by year comparison of the three players over the 15 year span of Dick Allen’s career (1963-1977). Note that rank (in parenthesis) is only included for years they appeared in the top ten of the league:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 47.4 (8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4, 39.1, 21.0, -3.0, 34.6
Killebrew: 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1, 18.1, 2.2, 2.4, 1.7
As seen above, Dick Allen ranked in the lead in year-by-year VORP among the three players 8 times, McCovey 7, and Killebrew 0. Dick Allen also takes the lead with ranking in the top 10 seven times during his career, McCovey 6 times during this span, and Killebrew 3. All three players were MVPs during this time frame (McCovey and Killebrew in 1969 and Allen in 1972). Allen was also Rookie of the Year in 1964, making him one of only nineteen players to be named both ROY and MVP during their career (8 out of 13 of those players that have accomplished this feat and are eligible for the Hall are in).
In all fairness, Killebrew retired in 1974, so it may be better to compare by age. Note that Dick Allen’s career started at age 21 and all three players were in the Bigs by age 21 as well, so the following is a comparison of all three players from the age of 21 to 35:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 35.4, 11.9, 14.3, 21.7, 47.4(8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4
Killebrew: 2.8, -3.2, 36.0, 39.2, 60.6 (10), 32.9, 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1
Once again, Allen wins the battle in head to head VORP with 7, McCovey takes second with 6, and Killebrew wins 2. Allen still places in the top ten 7 times, McCovey 6, and Killebrew 4. An interesting note is that like Allen, McCovey started his career at age 21. Killebrew was 18 in 1954 when he broke in with the Washington Senators, but had VORP totals of 0.9, -1.4, and 0.6 leading up to age 21.
If this has not ultimately settled Dick Allen’s campaign for the Hall of Fame, let’s look at one last stat. We will examine EQA, which is on the same level of importance as VORP. Baseball Prospectus defines EQA as a translated batting stat, which means that it: “Converts the player’s batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody.” This means that EQA is adjusted for era and park size and every ballplayer is on a level playing field. EQA can be put on a similar scale to batting average, where league average is .260 and a great career is over .300. The career statistics for Willie McCovey register in at an EQA of .318, Killebrew at .306, and Dick Allen at .327. Allen’s .327 asserts him in the top 25 of all-time, and is tied with another great first baseman (Mark McGwire).
Through this in depth analysis, it appears that Allen is long over due for his Hall of Fame induction. However, you might disagree with this method. Please voice your opinion about how you think a player’s career should be judged when it comes to hall of fame voting.

When a baseball fan thinks of the Minnesota Twins, they likely categorize the Twins as a nice little team that develops talent and competes for division titles. At the same time, it’s not a team anyone fears because they won’t make that big move in free agency or in the trade market. The 2007-2008 offseason defied such a type-casting of the Twins but as Twins fans know, not necessarily for the better. That year, the Twins gave up RHP Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett for the dynamic duo of OF Delmon Young and SS Brendan Harris. Young was sold to the fans as a hot young player, a former #1 overall pick in fact, that could become an elite hitter. Twins fans were sold on having a trio of Morneau, Mauer, and Delmon Young. Unfortunately, Young has become the opposite of an elite hitter and the deal has worked out about as bad as could have been imagined for the Twins. In this article, I will examine the different routes each of the two teams have taken since then in terms of record, and analyze the contributions each player has made to their new team through VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).
The 2007 Minnesota Twins finished 79-83, landing them 17 games back of the Central Division winning Cleveland Indians. The Devil Rays on the other hand, were a lousy 66-96—30 games back of the Red Sox. This trade would see the two teams exchange their everyday shortstops and then the Twins receiving the first overall draft pick from 2003 while sending to the Devil Rays what they felt like was a pitcher who did not fit into their team’s pitching philosophy. With an up-and-coming player like Delmon Young, who finished second in ROY voting in 2007 and played in all 162 games for the Devil Rays that same year, the Twins felt as though they had added a quality bat to make a run at the 2008 Central division title.
In 2007, Delmon Young hit .288/.343/.434, and had a Value Over Replacement Player of 5.7, which means that over the course of his 162 games that year, he contributed half a win on his own to the Devil Rays (10 VORP=1 win). In 2008, his first year with the Twins, Young played in 152 games, hitting .290/.336/.405, and saw his VORP increase to 13.4. 2009 has been a different story. While hitting .265, Young has an atrocious OBP of .289, which can be much attributed to his 7 walks in 235 Plate Appearances. He has found himself playing in only 65 games so far, compared to the 95 the Twins coveted CF Carlos Gomez has played in (Read on to find out more about this). He has also seen his VORP fall to -6.7, meaning that the Twins would be better off replacing him with a triple A or league minimum player.
Through adding Brendan Harris, the Twins felt as though they were gaining another solid infielder. His final season in Tampa Bay looked promising as he posted a VORP of 25.1. He saw this total fall to 10.1 in his first season with the Twins, which still is good enough to contribute one extra win. However, this year he has found himself splitting time with Nick Punto, and with the recent addition of Orlando Cabrera, he can expect even less time. Through this point of the 2009 season, Harris only brings a VORP of 1.3 to the table. In all, the Twins have seen combined VORP of 2.63 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza added in 2007 fall to 2.35 with the additions of Harris and Young, and furthermore, the combination of the two has dropped to -0.54 in the 2009 season.
Maybe the worst part of the whole deal from the Twins aspect of it is the fact that Nick Punto is seeing as much playing time as Harris and Carlos Gomez has far surpassed Young in games played this year. Both can be argued to be the worst offensive players at their positions in all of baseball. For example, Gomez has seen himself in the negative VORP range both years of service for the Twins, and Nick Punto’s VORP of
-26.7 in 2007 ranked him 1,018 in MLB, which was the absolute worst of any player that came to bat for any team the whole entire year. He has improved some since then (you couldn’t get any worse), but is still at -8.1 for the 2009 season.
Now to the Rays side of the spectrum. Since the addition of Bartlett and Garza, the combined VORP of the two went from the 3.08 additional wins that Harris and Young added to the team in 2007 to 4.87 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza contributed to the Rays in the 2008 season (The Rays finished 2 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Eastern division standings), to an astounding 7.87 extra wins for the 2009 season. Jason Bartlett is hitting .334 this year with an impressive OBP of .387. He also made his first appearance in the All-Star game this year. Matt Garza has posted sub 4 ERAs in both his years there, not to mention winning the ALCS MVP last year.
Overall, the Rays have greatly benefited from this trade, making their first World Series in franchise history in 2008. On the other hand, it seems as though up to this point of the season, the Twins would see no difference, but if anything, an improvement, if Brendan Harris and Delmon Young were not on the team at all.