Hall Worthy?

Being elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame is the highest honor any ballplayer could ever receive. Every January, new players are selected to enter baseball immortality in Cooperstown, New York. However, this election always ends with many fans revisiting the never ending question of whether or not we are excluding some former greats that are deserving. For every Bill Mazeroski and Jim Rice that finally makes it in, there are the Andre Dawsons and Bert Blylevens of the world left wondering what they have to do to finally gain their respective 75% of the votes. In this article, I would like to examine who is in my opinion the best baseball player that is not in the hall of fame, excluding those banned for life (Pete Rose, Joe Jackson, Buck Weaver) or falling short on votes due to steroid speculation (Mark McGwire, and many more to come once eligible), compare him to other hall of famers in his era, and ultimately open the question of whether or not we use the right criteria to elect ballplayers to the Hall of Fame. I will not be including pitchers in this article, so the Bert Blyleven and Lee Smith debates will be saved for a later date.
In order to be elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame, a player must receive 75% of the votes from the BBWAA. They are eligible for election as long as they played 10 major league seasons and have been retired for 5 years. Once retired for 5 years, the player appears on the BBWAA ballot for 15 years, and if they are not elected within that time frame, they move on to the Veteran’s Committee. However, once placed on the Veteran’s Committee, the likelihood of making it vastly diminishes.
The official Baseball Hall of Fame website states that “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” At first glance, it seems that the main criteria in reality for hall of fame voting is career stats, mostly of which are the traditional (HR, RBI, AVG). This may be a true judge of durability and a long career, but does can career totals be misleading? The answer is absolutely. To prove my point, I will examine the career of Dick Allen, the best player who is not in the hall of fame.
Glancing over Dick Allen’s career numbers, he may not have the totals to catch the attention of most voters, or make him stand out in comparison to other borderline hall of famers. For instance, he played for 15 seasons, appearing in 1,749 games with 6,332 at bats. He notched 1,848 hits over his career, 320 of which were doubles. For the main three traditional stats, his line was 351 HR, 1,119 RBI, and a .292 AVG. These display a very good career, but probably do not stand alone to make a run at the hall of fame given the career totals of other players in his era. However, when looking beyond the career totals and examining the important stats, one may feel that he should have found himself in the hall long ago.
The other two players we will be comparing Allen to are Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew. Both players are Hall of Famers and based on the Hall of Fame Monitor scores should be. The Hall of Fame monitor was created by Bill James as a way to judge whether a player is a hall of famer based on career totals, times he led the league in certain hitting statistics, and success of the team he played for. A score over 100 suggests a likely hall of famer with 130 or more being a lock. Killebrew registers in at 178, McCovey at 110, and Allen at 99. Let’s take a closer look at their career totals. Dick Allen has a career stat line of: 1,749 Games, 6,332 at bats, 1,099 runs, 1,848 hits, 320 doubles, 351 homers, 1,119 rbi, 133 stolen bases, 894 bb, .292 average, .378 OBP, .534 SLG, and .912 OPS. McCovey finished with 2,588 games, 8,197 AB, 1,229 R, 2,211 H, 353 2B, 521 HR, 1,555 RBI, 26 SB, 1,345 BB, .270 AVG, .374 OBP, .515 SLG, and an OPS of .889. Killebrew recorded 2,435 games, 8,147 AB, 1,283 R, 2,086 H, 290 2B, 573 HR, 1,584 RBI, 19 SB, 1,559 BB, .256 AVG, .376 OBP, .509 SLG, and an OPS of .885.
The two hall of famers lead in all non-rate categories except for stolen bases, but when you get to the important slash stats, we see Allen with a significant lead in Batting Average, but more importantly, leads in both OBP and SLG and therefore OPS. In fact, Dick Allen is 1 of the 65 players with a career OPS over .900. Career totals are perhaps unfair though, as seen by both McCovey and Killebrew having almost as many as 2,000 more at bats than Allen. I think a more interesting comparison would be to look at how these totals matched up on a year by year basis or in comparison to their respective leagues at the time.
The following totals show how many times each player led their respective leagues in the following statistics: HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS: Allen- 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 4 McCovey- 3, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3 Killebrew- 6, 3, 0, 1, 1, 0. With the most important of all the stats in the table, Dick Allen leads the way having led his respective league in OBP more than the other two in his career, as well as OPS. When it comes to the OPS aspect, Allen is one of only 17 players in the history of baseball to lead their respective league in OPS four or more times in a career. The others include: Dan Brouthers, Ed Delahanty, Honus Wagner, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson, and Frank Thomas. Notice that every single player from that list eligible for the hall of fame has been elected except for Allen.
Let’s now move on to one of my personal favorite statistics: VORP (Value over replacement player). Here is the year by year comparison of the three players over the 15 year span of Dick Allen’s career (1963-1977). Note that rank (in parenthesis) is only included for years they appeared in the top ten of the league:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 47.4 (8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4, 39.1, 21.0, -3.0, 34.6
Killebrew: 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1, 18.1, 2.2, 2.4, 1.7
As seen above, Dick Allen ranked in the lead in year-by-year VORP among the three players 8 times, McCovey 7, and Killebrew 0. Dick Allen also takes the lead with ranking in the top 10 seven times during his career, McCovey 6 times during this span, and Killebrew 3. All three players were MVPs during this time frame (McCovey and Killebrew in 1969 and Allen in 1972). Allen was also Rookie of the Year in 1964, making him one of only nineteen players to be named both ROY and MVP during their career (8 out of 13 of those players that have accomplished this feat and are eligible for the Hall are in).
In all fairness, Killebrew retired in 1974, so it may be better to compare by age. Note that Dick Allen’s career started at age 21 and all three players were in the Bigs by age 21 as well, so the following is a comparison of all three players from the age of 21 to 35:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 35.4, 11.9, 14.3, 21.7, 47.4(8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4
Killebrew: 2.8, -3.2, 36.0, 39.2, 60.6 (10), 32.9, 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1
Once again, Allen wins the battle in head to head VORP with 7, McCovey takes second with 6, and Killebrew wins 2. Allen still places in the top ten 7 times, McCovey 6, and Killebrew 4. An interesting note is that like Allen, McCovey started his career at age 21. Killebrew was 18 in 1954 when he broke in with the Washington Senators, but had VORP totals of 0.9, -1.4, and 0.6 leading up to age 21.
If this has not ultimately settled Dick Allen’s campaign for the Hall of Fame, let’s look at one last stat. We will examine EQA, which is on the same level of importance as VORP. Baseball Prospectus defines EQA as a translated batting stat, which means that it: “Converts the player’s batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody.” This means that EQA is adjusted for era and park size and every ballplayer is on a level playing field. EQA can be put on a similar scale to batting average, where league average is .260 and a great career is over .300. The career statistics for Willie McCovey register in at an EQA of .318, Killebrew at .306, and Dick Allen at .327. Allen’s .327 asserts him in the top 25 of all-time, and is tied with another great first baseman (Mark McGwire).
Through this in depth analysis, it appears that Allen is long over due for his Hall of Fame induction. However, you might disagree with this method. Please voice your opinion about how you think a player’s career should be judged when it comes to hall of fame voting.