When a baseball fan thinks of the Minnesota Twins, they likely categorize the Twins as a nice little team that develops talent and competes for division titles. At the same time, it’s not a team anyone fears because they won’t make that big move in free agency or in the trade market. The 2007-2008 offseason defied such a type-casting of the Twins but as Twins fans know, not necessarily for the better. That year, the Twins gave up RHP Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett for the dynamic duo of OF Delmon Young and SS Brendan Harris. Young was sold to the fans as a hot young player, a former #1 overall pick in fact, that could become an elite hitter. Twins fans were sold on having a trio of Morneau, Mauer, and Delmon Young. Unfortunately, Young has become the opposite of an elite hitter and the deal has worked out about as bad as could have been imagined for the Twins. In this article, I will examine the different routes each of the two teams have taken since then in terms of record, and analyze the contributions each player has made to their new team through VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).
The 2007 Minnesota Twins finished 79-83, landing them 17 games back of the Central Division winning Cleveland Indians. The Devil Rays on the other hand, were a lousy 66-96—30 games back of the Red Sox. This trade would see the two teams exchange their everyday shortstops and then the Twins receiving the first overall draft pick from 2003 while sending to the Devil Rays what they felt like was a pitcher who did not fit into their team’s pitching philosophy. With an up-and-coming player like Delmon Young, who finished second in ROY voting in 2007 and played in all 162 games for the Devil Rays that same year, the Twins felt as though they had added a quality bat to make a run at the 2008 Central division title.
In 2007, Delmon Young hit .288/.343/.434, and had a Value Over Replacement Player of 5.7, which means that over the course of his 162 games that year, he contributed half a win on his own to the Devil Rays (10 VORP=1 win). In 2008, his first year with the Twins, Young played in 152 games, hitting .290/.336/.405, and saw his VORP increase to 13.4. 2009 has been a different story. While hitting .265, Young has an atrocious OBP of .289, which can be much attributed to his 7 walks in 235 Plate Appearances. He has found himself playing in only 65 games so far, compared to the 95 the Twins coveted CF Carlos Gomez has played in (Read on to find out more about this). He has also seen his VORP fall to -6.7, meaning that the Twins would be better off replacing him with a triple A or league minimum player.
Through adding Brendan Harris, the Twins felt as though they were gaining another solid infielder. His final season in Tampa Bay looked promising as he posted a VORP of 25.1. He saw this total fall to 10.1 in his first season with the Twins, which still is good enough to contribute one extra win. However, this year he has found himself splitting time with Nick Punto, and with the recent addition of Orlando Cabrera, he can expect even less time. Through this point of the 2009 season, Harris only brings a VORP of 1.3 to the table. In all, the Twins have seen combined VORP of 2.63 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza added in 2007 fall to 2.35 with the additions of Harris and Young, and furthermore, the combination of the two has dropped to -0.54 in the 2009 season.
Maybe the worst part of the whole deal from the Twins aspect of it is the fact that Nick Punto is seeing as much playing time as Harris and Carlos Gomez has far surpassed Young in games played this year. Both can be argued to be the worst offensive players at their positions in all of baseball. For example, Gomez has seen himself in the negative VORP range both years of service for the Twins, and Nick Punto’s VORP of
-26.7 in 2007 ranked him 1,018 in MLB, which was the absolute worst of any player that came to bat for any team the whole entire year. He has improved some since then (you couldn’t get any worse), but is still at -8.1 for the 2009 season.
Now to the Rays side of the spectrum. Since the addition of Bartlett and Garza, the combined VORP of the two went from the 3.08 additional wins that Harris and Young added to the team in 2007 to 4.87 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza contributed to the Rays in the 2008 season (The Rays finished 2 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Eastern division standings), to an astounding 7.87 extra wins for the 2009 season. Jason Bartlett is hitting .334 this year with an impressive OBP of .387. He also made his first appearance in the All-Star game this year. Matt Garza has posted sub 4 ERAs in both his years there, not to mention winning the ALCS MVP last year.
Overall, the Rays have greatly benefited from this trade, making their first World Series in franchise history in 2008. On the other hand, it seems as though up to this point of the season, the Twins would see no difference, but if anything, an improvement, if Brendan Harris and Delmon Young were not on the team at all.