At the end of every season, we see the annual awards handed out, with the least debated coming first: the Rawlings Gold Glove Awards. Many might like to argue over whether each MVP winner or Cy Young Award recipient was the most deserving, but not much thought seems to go into the Gold Glove selections. Maybe it’s because we are too trusting of defensive abilities of the same players that are selected year in and year out. The idea has been thrown out that the Gold Glove awards are more of a name recognition award, and certain players have been able to settle into the award for their position and accumulate a respective amount over the course of their career. In this article, I would like to explore some of the Gold Glove award winners at the Shortstop position, and share my thoughts towards whether or not we can really view them as great defensive shortstops.
Shortstop is the second toughest defensive position to play (catcher is first). The following is a list of the shortstops who have won the Gold Glove the most amount of times in their career: Ozzie Smith (13), Omar Vizquel (11), Luis Aparicio (9), Mark Belanger (8), Dave Concepcion (5), Tony Fernandez and Alan Trammell (4), Derek Jeter (3). Although there are others who won 3 in their career, the reason I only listed Derek Jeter from that group is because I would like to examine his defensive ability as a shortstop. Indeed, Derek Jeter is a great all-around shortstop, but his offensive numbers carry most of the weight. At first glance, he has a career fielding percentage of .976 which is close to Ozzie Smith’s career .978. We will focus more on the Wizard later. As for now, I will say that looking at someone’s fielding percentage is probably the last stat you should look at to determine their worth as a defender. For example, it in no way punishes an infielder for lacking range. We will get to this idea in a bit. From 2004 to 2008, Derek Jeter ranked ninth, ninth, eleventh, sixteenth, and seventh in fielding percentage among all shortstops who qualified. Now these ranks aren’t anything to write home about, but what I am about to reveal to you is. Keep in mind that Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove for American League Shortstops from 2004 to 2006. I would now like to introduce a defensive stat I found on the Hardball Times website known as OOZ. OOZ stands for Out of Zone and as defined by the site is the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside his zone. From 2004 to 2008, Derek Jeter had OOZ totals of 29, 26, 28, 35, and 29. This might not mean anything to you yet, but to give you an idea, the league leaders in OOZ from 2004 to 2008 were Miguel Tejada (93), Rafael Furcal and Adam Everett (78), Bill Hall (66), Troy Tulowitzki (87), and JJ Hardy (72). In fact, in the years that he won 3 Gold Glove Awards in a row, Derek Jeter ranked 22/22, 25/25, and 23/24 among all shortstops who qualified for fielding percentage in those years. So it might be safe to say that Jeter was handed his 3 Gold Glove Awards on a name recognition basis based on him finishing last twice and second to last in this very important range statistic. I’m certain that one cannot be viewed as a great defensive shortstop with contributing the range factor.
I would now like to shift gears back to the list of the top Gold Glove winners at the shortstop position. Based on this award, the top two defensive shortstops of all-time are Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel. Many would agree with these two being the best defensive shortstops of all-time, but is that really the case? The answer is partially. Over his career, Ozzie Smith posted a fielding percentage of .978. Omar Vizquel up to this point has one of .986. Smith’s best defensive season based on fielding percentage (.987), would only rank tenth among Omar Vizquel’s best defensive seasons based on fielding percentage (His best was .998 and he is fielding 1.000 up to this point of the season while seeing limited time for the Texas Rangers). However, this by no means indicates that Vizquel is a better defensive shortstop than Smith, and his fielding percentages are so misleading that he has wrongly been assessed as a quality defensive shortstop over his career. For this argument, I would like to examine the stat FRAA, which stands for fielding runs above average and can be found on the Baseball Prospectus website. One can basically look at FRAA as the amount of runs a defender saves his team in the field in comparison to what an average shortstop would have saved if he was playing in that spot instead. Here is a look at the year by year FRAA totals for Smith and Vizquel:
Smith (1978-1996): 10, 4, 18, 14, 26, 24, 25, 51, 13, 18, 30, 39, 14, 22, 39, 24, 2, 0, 14
Vizquel (1989-2009): 10, -11, 1, -15, -11, -2, -6, 3, 5, 5, 22, -12, -5, -27, 3, -7, -3, -16, 9, -2, 6
It is pretty much common knowledge that Ozzie Smith is the greatest defensive shortstop of all-time and the numbers back this up. He won the Gold Glove Award for NL shortstops 13 years in a row (1980-1992). During these 13 years, he saved the Cardinals 333 runs above the average shortstop through his amazing defense. Every one of those years, he fielded well above the average in terms of FRAA, and much can be attributed to his ability to range to balls up the middle that no one else could. Omar Vizquel won the AL Gold Glove Award for shortstops 9 years in a row (1993-01) and then twice in the NL (2005-06). During his 11 seasons in which he claimed the Gold Glove Award, he actually saved his teams 20 runs less than an average shortstop would have (meaning that he actually cost them 20). I’m not sure that this should be a true attribute of an 11 time Gold Glove Award Winner. Vizquels best season of FRAA would rank tied for 9th in comparison to Smith’s best seasons of FRAA. In the end, Ozzie Smith saved the Cards 387 runs more than the average shortstop would have in a 19 year career, and Vizquel has cost his teams 53 more runs than an average shortstop would up to this point in his career. What this means in the end is that between the two leading Gold Glove Award winners at the shortstop position, Ozzie Smith saved his team 440 more runs in FRAA than Vizquel has.
As shown above, fielding percentages are terrible determinants of a players overall defensive ability. They have been very misleading when it has come to evaluating a player’s defensive ability and have probably cost more deserving players their shot at winning Gold Glove Awards. At the high level of play that is Major League Baseball, we should come to expect that a player should successfully field a ground ball within his range well over 9.5 out of every 10 chances, but it is those that make the plays outside of their zone that really set them apart.
August 29, 2009
August 27, 2009
Everything Looks Better in a Weak Division
I declared the Twins dead in the water a couple of weeks ago and regardless of their recent success (against two minor-league clubs, not that it matters…) I stand by that. Twins fans seem to be talking about why they hadn’t gone out and got this player or that player and they rattle off numbers about how well those guys are hitting with their other clubs…these things are all fine, except they don’t address the issue at hand for this ballclub: pitching.
People have begun to realize that the Twins pitching staff is not good but when talking about ways to better the team it’s always about getting rid of Delmon Young or Nick Punto and how we missed out on a guy like Mark DeRosa. Fine points if you’re looking for one more piece to put together a World Series run, but you’re not. This team needs pitching and needs it bad. Gone are the days of Twins 2-1 victories (haters, go ahead and bring up their most recent 2-1 win) and in have come a slew of 7-6 type wins. Personally, I think this pitching staff has been overrated in past years but they have put up the numbers to back up the hype. However, the second they lost Johan they became an average pitching staff at best with no identifiable #1 starter. This year especially, they have shown that they have a collection of 3, 4, and 5 type starters that are being thrust into 1 and 2 roles. Around the league there are a few 4 and 5 starters that would be the Twins #1 starter if they found themselves in the Minnesota pinstripes.
Hopefully the Twins address starting pitching issues as well as the bullpen in this offseason. I say but am prepared for what seems to be the case every year where Twins fans are sold on the pitching staff continuing to improve and getting better from within. This latter excuse for not making any moves is where the most pain is going to come. This is at least the second consecutive year where the Twins enter the offseason desperately needing some bullpen help. Yet, if Pat Neshek gets healthy and can pitch in 2010, the fans who have paid for the beautiful new home of the Minnesota Twins will again be sold on a cost-effective way to be just good enough to compete in a consistently overrated division. Call me a cynic, call me an outsider, but this is just the things seem to be. Cool, more revenue from Target Field…show me what it does for the on-field product. Results need to be demanded and that starts in the offseason…sign a big-time ace, bolster the bullpen, and stop wasting the prime of two premier offensive players (Mauer and Morneau…but if you didn’t know that you probably didn’t find your way to this website).
August 23, 2009
Hall Worthy?
Being elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame is the highest honor any ballplayer could ever receive. Every January, new players are selected to enter baseball immortality in Cooperstown, New York. However, this election always ends with many fans revisiting the never ending question of whether or not we are excluding some former greats that are deserving. For every Bill Mazeroski and Jim Rice that finally makes it in, there are the Andre Dawsons and Bert Blylevens of the world left wondering what they have to do to finally gain their respective 75% of the votes. In this article, I would like to examine who is in my opinion the best baseball player that is not in the hall of fame, excluding those banned for life (Pete Rose, Joe Jackson, Buck Weaver) or falling short on votes due to steroid speculation (Mark McGwire, and many more to come once eligible), compare him to other hall of famers in his era, and ultimately open the question of whether or not we use the right criteria to elect ballplayers to the Hall of Fame. I will not be including pitchers in this article, so the Bert Blyleven and Lee Smith debates will be saved for a later date.
In order to be elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame, a player must receive 75% of the votes from the BBWAA. They are eligible for election as long as they played 10 major league seasons and have been retired for 5 years. Once retired for 5 years, the player appears on the BBWAA ballot for 15 years, and if they are not elected within that time frame, they move on to the Veteran’s Committee. However, once placed on the Veteran’s Committee, the likelihood of making it vastly diminishes.
The official Baseball Hall of Fame website states that “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” At first glance, it seems that the main criteria in reality for hall of fame voting is career stats, mostly of which are the traditional (HR, RBI, AVG). This may be a true judge of durability and a long career, but does can career totals be misleading? The answer is absolutely. To prove my point, I will examine the career of Dick Allen, the best player who is not in the hall of fame.
Glancing over Dick Allen’s career numbers, he may not have the totals to catch the attention of most voters, or make him stand out in comparison to other borderline hall of famers. For instance, he played for 15 seasons, appearing in 1,749 games with 6,332 at bats. He notched 1,848 hits over his career, 320 of which were doubles. For the main three traditional stats, his line was 351 HR, 1,119 RBI, and a .292 AVG. These display a very good career, but probably do not stand alone to make a run at the hall of fame given the career totals of other players in his era. However, when looking beyond the career totals and examining the important stats, one may feel that he should have found himself in the hall long ago.
The other two players we will be comparing Allen to are Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew. Both players are Hall of Famers and based on the Hall of Fame Monitor scores should be. The Hall of Fame monitor was created by Bill James as a way to judge whether a player is a hall of famer based on career totals, times he led the league in certain hitting statistics, and success of the team he played for. A score over 100 suggests a likely hall of famer with 130 or more being a lock. Killebrew registers in at 178, McCovey at 110, and Allen at 99. Let’s take a closer look at their career totals. Dick Allen has a career stat line of: 1,749 Games, 6,332 at bats, 1,099 runs, 1,848 hits, 320 doubles, 351 homers, 1,119 rbi, 133 stolen bases, 894 bb, .292 average, .378 OBP, .534 SLG, and .912 OPS. McCovey finished with 2,588 games, 8,197 AB, 1,229 R, 2,211 H, 353 2B, 521 HR, 1,555 RBI, 26 SB, 1,345 BB, .270 AVG, .374 OBP, .515 SLG, and an OPS of .889. Killebrew recorded 2,435 games, 8,147 AB, 1,283 R, 2,086 H, 290 2B, 573 HR, 1,584 RBI, 19 SB, 1,559 BB, .256 AVG, .376 OBP, .509 SLG, and an OPS of .885.
The two hall of famers lead in all non-rate categories except for stolen bases, but when you get to the important slash stats, we see Allen with a significant lead in Batting Average, but more importantly, leads in both OBP and SLG and therefore OPS. In fact, Dick Allen is 1 of the 65 players with a career OPS over .900. Career totals are perhaps unfair though, as seen by both McCovey and Killebrew having almost as many as 2,000 more at bats than Allen. I think a more interesting comparison would be to look at how these totals matched up on a year by year basis or in comparison to their respective leagues at the time.
The following totals show how many times each player led their respective leagues in the following statistics: HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS: Allen- 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 4 McCovey- 3, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3 Killebrew- 6, 3, 0, 1, 1, 0. With the most important of all the stats in the table, Dick Allen leads the way having led his respective league in OBP more than the other two in his career, as well as OPS. When it comes to the OPS aspect, Allen is one of only 17 players in the history of baseball to lead their respective league in OPS four or more times in a career. The others include: Dan Brouthers, Ed Delahanty, Honus Wagner, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson, and Frank Thomas. Notice that every single player from that list eligible for the hall of fame has been elected except for Allen.
Let’s now move on to one of my personal favorite statistics: VORP (Value over replacement player). Here is the year by year comparison of the three players over the 15 year span of Dick Allen’s career (1963-1977). Note that rank (in parenthesis) is only included for years they appeared in the top ten of the league:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 47.4 (8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4, 39.1, 21.0, -3.0, 34.6
Killebrew: 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1, 18.1, 2.2, 2.4, 1.7
As seen above, Dick Allen ranked in the lead in year-by-year VORP among the three players 8 times, McCovey 7, and Killebrew 0. Dick Allen also takes the lead with ranking in the top 10 seven times during his career, McCovey 6 times during this span, and Killebrew 3. All three players were MVPs during this time frame (McCovey and Killebrew in 1969 and Allen in 1972). Allen was also Rookie of the Year in 1964, making him one of only nineteen players to be named both ROY and MVP during their career (8 out of 13 of those players that have accomplished this feat and are eligible for the Hall are in).
In all fairness, Killebrew retired in 1974, so it may be better to compare by age. Note that Dick Allen’s career started at age 21 and all three players were in the Bigs by age 21 as well, so the following is a comparison of all three players from the age of 21 to 35:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 35.4, 11.9, 14.3, 21.7, 47.4(8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4
Killebrew: 2.8, -3.2, 36.0, 39.2, 60.6 (10), 32.9, 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1
Once again, Allen wins the battle in head to head VORP with 7, McCovey takes second with 6, and Killebrew wins 2. Allen still places in the top ten 7 times, McCovey 6, and Killebrew 4. An interesting note is that like Allen, McCovey started his career at age 21. Killebrew was 18 in 1954 when he broke in with the Washington Senators, but had VORP totals of 0.9, -1.4, and 0.6 leading up to age 21.
If this has not ultimately settled Dick Allen’s campaign for the Hall of Fame, let’s look at one last stat. We will examine EQA, which is on the same level of importance as VORP. Baseball Prospectus defines EQA as a translated batting stat, which means that it: “Converts the player’s batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody.” This means that EQA is adjusted for era and park size and every ballplayer is on a level playing field. EQA can be put on a similar scale to batting average, where league average is .260 and a great career is over .300. The career statistics for Willie McCovey register in at an EQA of .318, Killebrew at .306, and Dick Allen at .327. Allen’s .327 asserts him in the top 25 of all-time, and is tied with another great first baseman (Mark McGwire).
Through this in depth analysis, it appears that Allen is long over due for his Hall of Fame induction. However, you might disagree with this method. Please voice your opinion about how you think a player’s career should be judged when it comes to hall of fame voting.
In order to be elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame, a player must receive 75% of the votes from the BBWAA. They are eligible for election as long as they played 10 major league seasons and have been retired for 5 years. Once retired for 5 years, the player appears on the BBWAA ballot for 15 years, and if they are not elected within that time frame, they move on to the Veteran’s Committee. However, once placed on the Veteran’s Committee, the likelihood of making it vastly diminishes.
The official Baseball Hall of Fame website states that “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.” At first glance, it seems that the main criteria in reality for hall of fame voting is career stats, mostly of which are the traditional (HR, RBI, AVG). This may be a true judge of durability and a long career, but does can career totals be misleading? The answer is absolutely. To prove my point, I will examine the career of Dick Allen, the best player who is not in the hall of fame.
Glancing over Dick Allen’s career numbers, he may not have the totals to catch the attention of most voters, or make him stand out in comparison to other borderline hall of famers. For instance, he played for 15 seasons, appearing in 1,749 games with 6,332 at bats. He notched 1,848 hits over his career, 320 of which were doubles. For the main three traditional stats, his line was 351 HR, 1,119 RBI, and a .292 AVG. These display a very good career, but probably do not stand alone to make a run at the hall of fame given the career totals of other players in his era. However, when looking beyond the career totals and examining the important stats, one may feel that he should have found himself in the hall long ago.
The other two players we will be comparing Allen to are Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew. Both players are Hall of Famers and based on the Hall of Fame Monitor scores should be. The Hall of Fame monitor was created by Bill James as a way to judge whether a player is a hall of famer based on career totals, times he led the league in certain hitting statistics, and success of the team he played for. A score over 100 suggests a likely hall of famer with 130 or more being a lock. Killebrew registers in at 178, McCovey at 110, and Allen at 99. Let’s take a closer look at their career totals. Dick Allen has a career stat line of: 1,749 Games, 6,332 at bats, 1,099 runs, 1,848 hits, 320 doubles, 351 homers, 1,119 rbi, 133 stolen bases, 894 bb, .292 average, .378 OBP, .534 SLG, and .912 OPS. McCovey finished with 2,588 games, 8,197 AB, 1,229 R, 2,211 H, 353 2B, 521 HR, 1,555 RBI, 26 SB, 1,345 BB, .270 AVG, .374 OBP, .515 SLG, and an OPS of .889. Killebrew recorded 2,435 games, 8,147 AB, 1,283 R, 2,086 H, 290 2B, 573 HR, 1,584 RBI, 19 SB, 1,559 BB, .256 AVG, .376 OBP, .509 SLG, and an OPS of .885.
The two hall of famers lead in all non-rate categories except for stolen bases, but when you get to the important slash stats, we see Allen with a significant lead in Batting Average, but more importantly, leads in both OBP and SLG and therefore OPS. In fact, Dick Allen is 1 of the 65 players with a career OPS over .900. Career totals are perhaps unfair though, as seen by both McCovey and Killebrew having almost as many as 2,000 more at bats than Allen. I think a more interesting comparison would be to look at how these totals matched up on a year by year basis or in comparison to their respective leagues at the time.
The following totals show how many times each player led their respective leagues in the following statistics: HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS: Allen- 2, 1, 0, 2, 3, 4 McCovey- 3, 2, 0, 1, 3, 3 Killebrew- 6, 3, 0, 1, 1, 0. With the most important of all the stats in the table, Dick Allen leads the way having led his respective league in OBP more than the other two in his career, as well as OPS. When it comes to the OPS aspect, Allen is one of only 17 players in the history of baseball to lead their respective league in OPS four or more times in a career. The others include: Dan Brouthers, Ed Delahanty, Honus Wagner, Rogers Hornsby, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson, and Frank Thomas. Notice that every single player from that list eligible for the hall of fame has been elected except for Allen.
Let’s now move on to one of my personal favorite statistics: VORP (Value over replacement player). Here is the year by year comparison of the three players over the 15 year span of Dick Allen’s career (1963-1977). Note that rank (in parenthesis) is only included for years they appeared in the top ten of the league:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 47.4 (8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4, 39.1, 21.0, -3.0, 34.6
Killebrew: 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1, 18.1, 2.2, 2.4, 1.7
As seen above, Dick Allen ranked in the lead in year-by-year VORP among the three players 8 times, McCovey 7, and Killebrew 0. Dick Allen also takes the lead with ranking in the top 10 seven times during his career, McCovey 6 times during this span, and Killebrew 3. All three players were MVPs during this time frame (McCovey and Killebrew in 1969 and Allen in 1972). Allen was also Rookie of the Year in 1964, making him one of only nineteen players to be named both ROY and MVP during their career (8 out of 13 of those players that have accomplished this feat and are eligible for the Hall are in).
In all fairness, Killebrew retired in 1974, so it may be better to compare by age. Note that Dick Allen’s career started at age 21 and all three players were in the Bigs by age 21 as well, so the following is a comparison of all three players from the age of 21 to 35:
Allen: 0.7, 70.2 (2), 58.4 (4), 74.4 (2), 64.4 (3), 39.4, 44.9, 40.6, 50.1 (5), 68.5 (3), 35.3, 52.1 (8), 4.9, 19.6, -2.1
McCovey: 35.4, 11.9, 14.3, 21.7, 47.4(8), 6.9, 50.6 (10), 62.3 (3), 43.9, 57.0 (1), 83.5 (1), 73.5 (3), 24.9, 1.8, 44.4
Killebrew: 2.8, -3.2, 36.0, 39.2, 60.6 (10), 32.9, 39.3, 47.6, 33.5, 55.3 (7), 62.4 (4), 14.9, 75.5 (3), 56.0, 35.1
Once again, Allen wins the battle in head to head VORP with 7, McCovey takes second with 6, and Killebrew wins 2. Allen still places in the top ten 7 times, McCovey 6, and Killebrew 4. An interesting note is that like Allen, McCovey started his career at age 21. Killebrew was 18 in 1954 when he broke in with the Washington Senators, but had VORP totals of 0.9, -1.4, and 0.6 leading up to age 21.
If this has not ultimately settled Dick Allen’s campaign for the Hall of Fame, let’s look at one last stat. We will examine EQA, which is on the same level of importance as VORP. Baseball Prospectus defines EQA as a translated batting stat, which means that it: “Converts the player’s batting statistics into a context that is the same for everybody.” This means that EQA is adjusted for era and park size and every ballplayer is on a level playing field. EQA can be put on a similar scale to batting average, where league average is .260 and a great career is over .300. The career statistics for Willie McCovey register in at an EQA of .318, Killebrew at .306, and Dick Allen at .327. Allen’s .327 asserts him in the top 25 of all-time, and is tied with another great first baseman (Mark McGwire).
Through this in depth analysis, it appears that Allen is long over due for his Hall of Fame induction. However, you might disagree with this method. Please voice your opinion about how you think a player’s career should be judged when it comes to hall of fame voting.
August 17, 2009
When a baseball fan thinks of the Minnesota Twins, they likely categorize the Twins as a nice little team that develops talent and competes for division titles. At the same time, it’s not a team anyone fears because they won’t make that big move in free agency or in the trade market. The 2007-2008 offseason defied such a type-casting of the Twins but as Twins fans know, not necessarily for the better. That year, the Twins gave up RHP Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett for the dynamic duo of OF Delmon Young and SS Brendan Harris. Young was sold to the fans as a hot young player, a former #1 overall pick in fact, that could become an elite hitter. Twins fans were sold on having a trio of Morneau, Mauer, and Delmon Young. Unfortunately, Young has become the opposite of an elite hitter and the deal has worked out about as bad as could have been imagined for the Twins. In this article, I will examine the different routes each of the two teams have taken since then in terms of record, and analyze the contributions each player has made to their new team through VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).
The 2007 Minnesota Twins finished 79-83, landing them 17 games back of the Central Division winning Cleveland Indians. The Devil Rays on the other hand, were a lousy 66-96—30 games back of the Red Sox. This trade would see the two teams exchange their everyday shortstops and then the Twins receiving the first overall draft pick from 2003 while sending to the Devil Rays what they felt like was a pitcher who did not fit into their team’s pitching philosophy. With an up-and-coming player like Delmon Young, who finished second in ROY voting in 2007 and played in all 162 games for the Devil Rays that same year, the Twins felt as though they had added a quality bat to make a run at the 2008 Central division title.
In 2007, Delmon Young hit .288/.343/.434, and had a Value Over Replacement Player of 5.7, which means that over the course of his 162 games that year, he contributed half a win on his own to the Devil Rays (10 VORP=1 win). In 2008, his first year with the Twins, Young played in 152 games, hitting .290/.336/.405, and saw his VORP increase to 13.4. 2009 has been a different story. While hitting .265, Young has an atrocious OBP of .289, which can be much attributed to his 7 walks in 235 Plate Appearances. He has found himself playing in only 65 games so far, compared to the 95 the Twins coveted CF Carlos Gomez has played in (Read on to find out more about this). He has also seen his VORP fall to -6.7, meaning that the Twins would be better off replacing him with a triple A or league minimum player.
Through adding Brendan Harris, the Twins felt as though they were gaining another solid infielder. His final season in Tampa Bay looked promising as he posted a VORP of 25.1. He saw this total fall to 10.1 in his first season with the Twins, which still is good enough to contribute one extra win. However, this year he has found himself splitting time with Nick Punto, and with the recent addition of Orlando Cabrera, he can expect even less time. Through this point of the 2009 season, Harris only brings a VORP of 1.3 to the table. In all, the Twins have seen combined VORP of 2.63 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza added in 2007 fall to 2.35 with the additions of Harris and Young, and furthermore, the combination of the two has dropped to -0.54 in the 2009 season.
Maybe the worst part of the whole deal from the Twins aspect of it is the fact that Nick Punto is seeing as much playing time as Harris and Carlos Gomez has far surpassed Young in games played this year. Both can be argued to be the worst offensive players at their positions in all of baseball. For example, Gomez has seen himself in the negative VORP range both years of service for the Twins, and Nick Punto’s VORP of
-26.7 in 2007 ranked him 1,018 in MLB, which was the absolute worst of any player that came to bat for any team the whole entire year. He has improved some since then (you couldn’t get any worse), but is still at -8.1 for the 2009 season.
Now to the Rays side of the spectrum. Since the addition of Bartlett and Garza, the combined VORP of the two went from the 3.08 additional wins that Harris and Young added to the team in 2007 to 4.87 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza contributed to the Rays in the 2008 season (The Rays finished 2 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Eastern division standings), to an astounding 7.87 extra wins for the 2009 season. Jason Bartlett is hitting .334 this year with an impressive OBP of .387. He also made his first appearance in the All-Star game this year. Matt Garza has posted sub 4 ERAs in both his years there, not to mention winning the ALCS MVP last year.
Overall, the Rays have greatly benefited from this trade, making their first World Series in franchise history in 2008. On the other hand, it seems as though up to this point of the season, the Twins would see no difference, but if anything, an improvement, if Brendan Harris and Delmon Young were not on the team at all.
The 2007 Minnesota Twins finished 79-83, landing them 17 games back of the Central Division winning Cleveland Indians. The Devil Rays on the other hand, were a lousy 66-96—30 games back of the Red Sox. This trade would see the two teams exchange their everyday shortstops and then the Twins receiving the first overall draft pick from 2003 while sending to the Devil Rays what they felt like was a pitcher who did not fit into their team’s pitching philosophy. With an up-and-coming player like Delmon Young, who finished second in ROY voting in 2007 and played in all 162 games for the Devil Rays that same year, the Twins felt as though they had added a quality bat to make a run at the 2008 Central division title.
In 2007, Delmon Young hit .288/.343/.434, and had a Value Over Replacement Player of 5.7, which means that over the course of his 162 games that year, he contributed half a win on his own to the Devil Rays (10 VORP=1 win). In 2008, his first year with the Twins, Young played in 152 games, hitting .290/.336/.405, and saw his VORP increase to 13.4. 2009 has been a different story. While hitting .265, Young has an atrocious OBP of .289, which can be much attributed to his 7 walks in 235 Plate Appearances. He has found himself playing in only 65 games so far, compared to the 95 the Twins coveted CF Carlos Gomez has played in (Read on to find out more about this). He has also seen his VORP fall to -6.7, meaning that the Twins would be better off replacing him with a triple A or league minimum player.
Through adding Brendan Harris, the Twins felt as though they were gaining another solid infielder. His final season in Tampa Bay looked promising as he posted a VORP of 25.1. He saw this total fall to 10.1 in his first season with the Twins, which still is good enough to contribute one extra win. However, this year he has found himself splitting time with Nick Punto, and with the recent addition of Orlando Cabrera, he can expect even less time. Through this point of the 2009 season, Harris only brings a VORP of 1.3 to the table. In all, the Twins have seen combined VORP of 2.63 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza added in 2007 fall to 2.35 with the additions of Harris and Young, and furthermore, the combination of the two has dropped to -0.54 in the 2009 season.
Maybe the worst part of the whole deal from the Twins aspect of it is the fact that Nick Punto is seeing as much playing time as Harris and Carlos Gomez has far surpassed Young in games played this year. Both can be argued to be the worst offensive players at their positions in all of baseball. For example, Gomez has seen himself in the negative VORP range both years of service for the Twins, and Nick Punto’s VORP of
-26.7 in 2007 ranked him 1,018 in MLB, which was the absolute worst of any player that came to bat for any team the whole entire year. He has improved some since then (you couldn’t get any worse), but is still at -8.1 for the 2009 season.
Now to the Rays side of the spectrum. Since the addition of Bartlett and Garza, the combined VORP of the two went from the 3.08 additional wins that Harris and Young added to the team in 2007 to 4.87 extra wins that Bartlett and Garza contributed to the Rays in the 2008 season (The Rays finished 2 games ahead of the Red Sox in the Eastern division standings), to an astounding 7.87 extra wins for the 2009 season. Jason Bartlett is hitting .334 this year with an impressive OBP of .387. He also made his first appearance in the All-Star game this year. Matt Garza has posted sub 4 ERAs in both his years there, not to mention winning the ALCS MVP last year.
Overall, the Rays have greatly benefited from this trade, making their first World Series in franchise history in 2008. On the other hand, it seems as though up to this point of the season, the Twins would see no difference, but if anything, an improvement, if Brendan Harris and Delmon Young were not on the team at all.
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